Guatemala Update: Pérez Molina’s First 90 Days

During his first three months in office, Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina made his mark by pushing for Latin American drug decriminalization while pushing for economic reforms and supporting institutions to combat impunity at home. Pérez Molina will mark the ninetieth day of his administration on April 14 at the Summit of the Americas in Colombia, where he will have the opportunity to discuss his take on drug policy.

Decriminalizing Drugs in Latin America

Narcotics policy proved the hallmark of Otto Pérez Molina’s administration thus far. In the first week of his administration, the president called for a regional decriminalization plan. After campaigning for a mano dura approach to crime—with no mention of decriminalization—some observers were taken by surprise with Pérez Molina’s new policy goal.

While his primary aim is to open up dialogue around the issue, Pérez Molina’s decriminalization pitch includes several proposals. He proposed a legal framework to regulate drugs and a “transit corridor” to manage regional drug trade. He suggested creating a regional court to try drug-related crimes, and to ask for financial compensation from the United States for northbound drug seizures in Central America. In a March interview with The Washington Post, he explained that he didn’t expect change overnight, but argued for a policy shift. “After everything that’s been tried, the result has been a growth [in drug trafficking] that shows that the strategy that has been followed for 30 or 40 years has failed,” he said. In an April 7 opinion piece for the Guardian, the president wrote: “Our proposal, as the Guatemalan government, is to abandon any ideological position (whether prohibition or liberalization) and to foster a global intergovernmental dialogue based on a realistic approach—drug regulation.”

Since taking office, Pérez Molina has sought to rally support for the plan from other Central American leaders. But when he organized a regional summit on March 24 to discuss decriminalization, only Costa Rica’s President Laura Chinchilla and Panama’s President Ricardo Martinelli attended. Though Chinchilla expressed interest in a “serious debate” on the drug issue, other Central American leaders appear less receptive. El Salvador’s President Mauricio Funes initially supported Pérez Molina’s decriminalization, but quickly softened his stance. Despite attending the meeting in Guatemala, Martinelli opposes decriminalization. Honduran President Porfirio Lobo and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega also both strongly oppose the move. Moreover, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden affirmed the Obama administration’s stance against decriminalization when he visited Mexico and Central America in early March.

Still, in recent months both Mexican President Felipe Calderón and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos voiced support for, at the very least, discussion around the question of decriminalization. As vocal supporters in the drug decriminalization debate, former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former Colombian President César Gaviria, and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo welcomed the support from Pérez Molina and other leaders. And the Guatemalan president will soon have a new forum to continue the discussion. On Saturday, Pérez Molina will meet with Central American leaders, as well as the presidents of Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico to discuss drug policy during the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia.

A Focus on Security and Rule of Law

Since Pérez Molina is a former general active during the end of Guatemala’s 36-year civil war, some observers worried that he would protect fellow officers from prosecution or hinder the country’s efforts to fight impunity. But the president encouraged the continuation of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a UN organization that investigates and tries human rights abuses, corruption, and related crimes. In February, Pérez Molina agreed to renew CICIG’s mandate for another two years. In addition, he kept on Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, a well-respected figure responsible for the arrests of numerous high-profile criminals.

Moreover, criminal prosecutions against military officers for civil war-era abuses are moving ahead. In mid-March, a court sentenced former soldier Pedro Pimentel Ríos to over 6,000 years in prison for participating in a 1982 massacre that killed over 250 people. One of the more high-profile cases is that of former General Efrain Rios Montt, an official who briefly ruled Guatemala after a 1982 coup and served for two decades as a congressman. In January, a court indicted him for crimes against humanity committed during the civil war, and denied him amnesty in March. Another ruling is expected next week.

Pérez Molina also hopes to improve security. Though Guatemala has one of the world’s highest murder rates, Pérez Molina took office at a time when violent crime was on the decline. Homicides decreased by 7.4 percent from 2010 to 2011, and murder rates in 2012 also show a downward trend. But security remains one of the country’s top concerns. In January, the president appointed a new chief of the national police, in what he called an attempt to “rescue the institution.” He also set up task forces to address narcotrafficking and organized crime.

Maintaining Social Programs, Shifting Economic and Energy Policies

Another policy held over from the prior administration was a focus on social programs, with Pérez Molina pledging $160 million for cash-transfer and anti-hunger initiatives. The president plans to continue two major social programs from the previous presidency. He will maintain Mi Familia Progresa (My Family Advances), which gives financial aid to low-income families who send their children to school and health clinics, as well as former First Lady Sandra Torres’ Bolsa Solidaria (Solidarity Budget) initiative to provide food for the poor. Pérez Molina’s government invested nearly $17 million in a new social program called Hambre Cero (Zero Hunger) to combat child malnutrition. He created the Ministry of Social Development to administrate these programs, replacing ex-President Álvaro Colom’s government arm for “social unity.”

An important change from the previous administration was the passage of a long-awaited tax-reform law, which will go into effect in 2013. Pérez Molina rallied legislative support by arguing that the measure could lower the national debt and provide more investments for development and security. Current tax rates are some of the lowest in Latin America, but will rise to 5 percent for middle-income earners and 7 percent for the high-income earners, reports an Americas Quarterly blog post. The administration is working on an economic plan to boost GDP growth, Pérez Molina told the press on April 9. The plan seeks to increase foreign direct investment and expand employment in various sectors, including infrastructure, energy, mining, and oil. However, some analysts aren’t optimistic about increasing capital flows and worry the plan is too dependent on increasing tax revenues.

On the energy front, the president expressed interest last month in joining Petrocaribe, Venezuela’s oil-trade alliance with a preferential payment system. Pérez Molina said Guatemala needed to be “more pragmatic” to combat rising gas prices, and hopes to meet with Venezuelan representatives at the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Colombia on April 14.