Strong Showing for Santos in Colombia's First Round

As predicted, Colombia will need to hold a second round of elections to decide who will take over when President Álvaro Uribe steps down in August. But the results from the first round on May 30 were surprising nonetheless: Although polls placed the two top candidates in a dead heat a week before elections, the U Party’s Juan Manuel Santos won more than double the number of votes of his main rival from the Green Party, Antanas Mockus. Santos, who earned 46.6 percent of the vote, came within a few points of winning the requisite simple majority to avoid a runoff. Mockus pulled in 21.5 percent. The results indicate that voters may feel more comfortable with the continuity of Uribe’s security policies represented by Santos, the ex-defense minister, than the change symbolized by Mockus, Bogota’s former mayor. When campaigns closed a week ago, Mockus polled five points ahead of Santos in the case of a second round. He now faces an uphill battle as the two candidates prepare for the June 20 runoff.

Mockus rose to the top of the polls on what became known as the ola verde (green tide), propelled by social media and supporters weary from Uribe administration scandals ranging from wiretapping to human rights abuses. “History is written with a pen and not with blood,” wrote Mockus in the days leading up to the election, stressing transparency, education, and innovation as central to his campaign. The Economist’s Newsbook notes that Mockus, a former mathematician and university rector, may have taken a hit at the ballot box due to blunders on the campaign trail, such as soft words he used for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who cut trade ties with Colombia. But Santos suggested the Mockus’ ballot-box shortcomings had more to do with his rival’s proposal to raise taxes.

When Sunday’s vote came around, “the tide was orange” rather than green, reported La Silla Vacía, alluding to the color of Santos’ U Party. In his role as defense minister, Santos was credited with the dramatic rescue of former politician and longtime hostage of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Ingrid Betancourt. He also served in that cabinet role during an attack on a FARC camp in Ecuadorian territory in which guerilla leader Raúl Reyes was killed. Santos’ candidacy was buoyed by improved public security conditions under the Uribe administration. Official figures report that the FARC’s membership dropped by nearly half since 2001—from 16,000 to 8,500. Murder rates fell by 44 percent between 2002 and 2008. Progress on security could also be seen in Sunday’s electoral process; the Ministry of the Interior reported that violent actions were down 78 percent on Sunday when compared to 2002 elections.

Santos now appears well placed to win come June 20. A second surprise on Sunday was the strong showing of Radical Change Party’s German Vargas Lleras, a pro-Uribe candidate who came in third with over 10 percent of the vote—more than double the portion forecasted. Vargas and Santos could well form a political alliance, putting Radical Change supporters behind Santos. The Conservative Party could throw support behind Santos as well. Meanwhile, the Democratic Pole’s Gustavo Petro, who finished fourth with 9.15 percent of the vote, could serve as a crucial ally for Mockus. Semana offers an analysis of possible alliances in the run up to June 20.

Of Colombia’s nearly 30 million voters, just over 49 percent marked ballots on Sunday.

Learn more:

• AS/COA holds its annual Bogota conference on June 17, days before the second round of elections on June 20.
• Official election results from Colombia’s National Registry.
• AS/COA analysis ahead of the election.
• Campaign website of Antanas Mockus.
• Campaign website of Juan Manuel Santos.
• La Silla Vacía’s analysis on the May 30 elections and what to expect in the second round.
• Terra’s Votebien offers a vote breakdown, including by department.
• Semana’s 2010 elections page.