2014 Election Blog: Colombia Prepares for Presidential Vote

On May 25, Colombia holds elections as the country’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, seeks another four-year term. A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of votes to avoid a runoff. Otherwise, a second-round vote will be held on June 15.

Who Are the Candidates?

President Juan Manuel Santos: Representing the governing, centrist Social Party of National Unity, the current head of state hopes to remain in office and maintain programs in areas such as education, housing, and poverty reduction. The president, whose government launched the peace talks in August 2012, aims to complete an agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Santos served as minister of trade, finance, and defense during previous administrations.

Óscar Iván Zuluaga: This candidate represents the right-leaning Democratic Center, a party created by former President Álvaro Uribe. In contrast to Santos, he opposes the peace talks and vows to suspend them. A former senator and finance minister, Zuluaga wants to cut government spending and reduce the number of congressional seats by 20 percent to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Still, his platform includes social inclusion measures similar to those Santos implemented.

Enrique Peñalosa: Running on the left-leaning Green Alliance ticket, this candidate previously served as mayor of Bogota and a federal congressman. Along with proposals for health, education, and security, Peñalosa promises to work on rural development and environmental issues. He says he would continue the talks with the FARC.

Clara López: On the left-leaning Democratic Pole/Patriotic Union alliance ticket, López was previously mayor of Bogota and auditor-general of Colombia.She supports the peace process and social inclusion measures, and advocates for improving infrastructure and renegotiating free-trade deals.

Marta Lucía Ramírez: Running for the Conservative Party, this candidate previously served as minister of trade and defense, as well as a senator. She’s running on an anti-corruption platform and supports the peace talks, though she would set stricter deadlines and impose conditions, such as only maintaining the dialogue if the FARC ceases attacks.

Explore Colombia's election by the numbers in our infographic.

What Do the Polls Say?

The last polls before the election show Santos and Zuluaga neck-and-neck. A May 17 Ipsos survey puts them in a statistical tie, with 28.5 percent for the president and 29.5 percent for Zuluaga. López is in third with 10 percent. The poll indicates that Santos would win a runoff with every candidate except Zuluaga; in a second round, they are tied with 32 percent. A May 15 Gallup poll also shows the two candidates in a close race; it puts Zuluaga at 29.3 percent and Santos at 29 percent. This survey places Ramírez in third place with 14.4 percent. A Cifras y Conceptos poll gives Santos a larger advantage: 27.7 percent to Zuluaga’s 23.9 percent. Margin of error for these surveys averages around 2 to 3 percent.

What Are Some of the Campaign Challenges?

Corruption allegations and mud-slinging marked the last few weeks of campaigning, as accusations arose in both the Santos and Zuluaga camps. The latest development involves a video released by Semana showing Zuluaga meeting with a supposed hacker to get classified information on the peace talks. The Cifras y Conceptos survey found that around 27 percent of voters said they’d changed their vote because of corruption allegations on both sides.

Plus, polls indicate voter disinterest. A May Datexco poll indicated the number of people planning to cast blank votes stands at 15 percent. Also, turnout may not be high: An April 30 Gallup poll found that only 54 percent of voters plan to show up on election day. Meanwhile, the latest Cifras y Conceptos poll found that not a single presidential candidate has an approval rating above 40 percent.