Americas Update: Looking ahead to 2012

Updated January 3, 2011 - In 2012, the Americas will witness a series of major elections while also playing host to key summits. Venezuelan elections could bring a vast leadership change, as President Hugo Chávez seeks reelection for a third term against a resurgent opposition. The presidential vote in Mexico could spell the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) return to power. In the U.S. race, where the Latino vote may prove crucial, President Barack Obama faces an increasingly fractured Republican Party. The Dominican Republic will also pick a new leader as President Leonel Fernández steps down. At global summits, leaders will confront challenges of trade, climate change, and regional integration.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Dominican Republic, May 16: Current President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) has served for three terms beginning in 1996, and decided not to change the Constitution in order to run for a fourth. Danilo Medina, of the center-right PLD, is running against Hipólito Mejía of the center-left Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD). Medina, a former congressman, served as secretary of State for two terms under Fernández. He ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign against Mejía in 2000, and is known for being a top political negotiator. Meanwhile, Mejía served as president from 2000 to 2004, and branded himself as “the father” for the 2012 elections. As president, he had one of the lowest recorded approval ratings—around 10 percent—due in part to one of the worst economic crises in Dominican history, beginning in 2003. According to a December 2011 ASISA Research group poll, Medina leads with 53.1 percent of the vote, and Mejía trails with 40.5 percent. 

In an effort to expand the electorate, Congress passed a law in February 2011 allowing Dominicans living abroad to vote in the election. But the Central Election Commission has also disenfranchised some, by nullifying “suspicious” birth certificates of Dominicans of Haitian descent, in an alleged effort to combat falsified documents.

Mexico, July 1: Mexican presidents cannot seek reelection, meaning President Felipe Calderón will step down at the end of his six-year term in 2012. Although campaigning for the July election does not legally begin until March 30 of next year, the race feels as though it is already underway, with two of the three main parties having selected their candidates in November. Poll frontrunner and ex-Governor of the State of Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto will represent the PRI, while former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador will serve as the candidate of the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). While the governing National Action Party (PAN) will not hold a primary to select its candidate until February, former Education Secretary Josefina Vázquez Mota is already considered the favorite among the party’s hopefuls. Senator Santiago Creel polls just behind her, while ex-Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero—Calderón’s choice for the role—polls behind both.

2012 could mark the return of the PRI, 12 years after the PAN ended its seven-decade hold on power. Should this occur, the PRI would also hold sway in Congress, which could break the legislative gridlock afflicting the current administration. A December 12 Consulta Mitofsky survey on the presidential election found that 39.6 percent of voters support the PRI’s coalition, compared to 21.1 for the PAN and 17.1 percent for the PRD coalition. In response to the question “Who would you like to be the next president of Mexico?” 32 percent said Peña Nieto, 10.7 percent chose López Obrador, and 7.3 percent said Vázquez Mota.

However, the race is far from over and each candidate possesses an Achilles’ heel. Peña Nieto has sought to present himself as a fresh face, but critics warn the party elite controls him and his election would spell a return to corruption and autocracy. Moreover, he closed out the year with a series of gaffes that rang alarm bells about his his presidential readiness; in a videotaped discussion at a book fair he couldn't coherently name three books that influenced him and, in a subsequently published interview, he stumbled over questions about Mexico's minimum wage and the price of tortillas. Many observers see López Obrador as a polarizing figure due to his ongoing refusal to concede defeat after he narrowly lost the 2006 presidential vote. Finally, Vázquez Mota is considered by some to lack sufficient political experience, while support for her party continues to diminish amid concerns over the current state of the economy and security.

Venezuela, October 7: President Hugo Chávez, in office since 1999, will run for a third term on the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) ticket. The main opposition bloc, the Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD), will hold a primary election on February 12. According to a recent Datos poll, current MUD frontrunner is the Justice First party’s Henrique Capriles Radonski, the governor of the state of Miranda and the former president of the Chamber of Deputies. But only three points behind Capriles is Pablo Pérez of the New Era party, the governor of the state of Zulia. Though currently behind in the polls, Leopoldo López of the Popular Will party is also running in the primary. Mayor of the Chacao municipality in Caracas from 2000 to 2008, he was banned from running for mayor of Caracas in 2008 due to corruption allegations, viewed by some as trumped up in order to prevent his candidacy. Though the ban is for six years and was upheld by Venezuela’s Supreme Court in October, he has forged ahead with his presidential campaign.

How the election will turn out is unclear. Capriles and Pérez are banking on the recent success of the MUD, which captured almost the same number of seats as the PSUV during the September 2010 parliamentary election. Some also question whether Chávez’s poor state of health—he has cancer and is undergoing treatment—will affect the outcome of the election. Still, recent polls indicate a slight lead for Chávez. According to a November 2011 Varianzas survey, Chávez would receive 49 percent of the votes if he ran against Capriles, who would receive 47 percent. If Chávez ran against Pérez, the current president would have a seven-point advantage. Prior to the elections, the Chávez administration plans to increase domestic spending by as much as 46 percent in an effort to capture votes, which potentially could give the incumbent president a boost. 

United States, November 6: Official party nominations for the Republicans and Democrats will take place in late August and early September 2012, respectively. U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to capture the critical Latino vote, with a recent study showing Latino voters see the GOP as “hostile” to Hispanics, in part because of Republican support for strict immigration policies. Though Obama promised immigration reform, his administration did not pass new legislation. Obama’s administration actually saw a rise in deportations, but recently chose a discretionary approach that seeks to expedite criminal cases and deprioritize non-criminal immigrants. A majority of Hispanics also oppose the Obama administration's increase of deportations, as a Pew Hispanic Center poll shows, but that disapproval has yet to translate into a lack of Latino support for Obama when compared to Republican candidates. Latinos could even determine the 2012 winner, given large Hispanic populations in swing states such as Florida and Virginia.

A December 2011 Gallup poll shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Obama would win with 51 percent of the vote against Gingrich, who would receive 38 percent. Obama’s approval rating currently stands at 42 percent.

A Chronology of Elections

• February 12: Venezuela Presidential Primaries
• February 18: PAN Presidential Primary (Mexico)
• March 11: El Salvador Legislative Elections
• May 16: Dominican Republic Presidential Elections
• July 1: Mexico Presidential and Legislative Elections
• August 27 – 30: Republican National Convention & Nominee Announcement
• September 30 – October 6: Democratic National Convention
• October 7: Brazil Municipal Elections
• October 7: Venezuela Presidential Elections
• October 21: Mexico State & Municipal Elections
• October 28: Chile Municipal Elections
• November 6: United States Presidential & Legislative Elections
• December 2: Venezuela Regional Elections

MAJOR 2012 HEMISPHERIC SUMMITS

Sixth Summit of the Americas, April 14 and 15: This hemispheric summit of 34 heads of state will take place in Cartagena, Colombia—three years after the Fifth Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago. At the last summit, which focused on the economic crisis, Obama declared a desire for a more equal relationship with Latin America. But the conference concluded without an agreement on the summit’s declaration, with more movement being seen on the sidelines. The sixth summit will focus on regional cooperation and special consideration of “poverty and inequality, citizen security, natural disasters, and access to technology.”

G20 Summit, June 18 and 19: The annual summit of the Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will take place in Los Cabos, Mexico, and will be the first time the G20 meets in Latin America. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are the group’s Latin American members. While leaders will discuss ongoing challenges from the economic crisis, Mexican representatives plan to expand the scope of discussions to focus on poverty and development. 

Rio +20 Earth Summit, June 20 to 22: The UN Conference on Sustainable Development, dubbed Rio +20, will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The conference marks the 20-year anniversary of the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development—also held in Rio—which resulted in two binding treaties on climate change and environmental preservation. The annual Conferences of the Parties (known as COP) on climate change were also a result of the 1992 conference. Over 100 heads of state will meet to discuss long-term political commitments to fight climate change, as well as exchange ideas on renewable energy and green jobs. 

APEC Summit, September 8 and 9: The twenty-fourth annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group will meet in Vladivostok, Russia to discuss regional trade, with the possibility of bilateral trade agreements on the sidelines. Talks will likely focus on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free-trade zone between Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United States. Canada, Japan, and Mexico have also expressed interest in participating in negotiations.

Access a full list of Americas Society/Council of the Americas Conferences to be hosted across the hemisphere via our online calendar.