Amid Uncertainty, Chávez Returns to Venezuela

Following a month-long stay in Cuba for emergency medical treatment, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez made an unannounced return to Caracas in the early hours of Monday, July 4, one day before his country celebrated the bicentennial of its independence from Spain. The 56-year-old, who had only the week before announced he was recovering from two major operations to remove a cancerous tumor from his body, was greeted on the tarmac by officials, including his brother Adán, the governor of Barinas state, and Vice President Elías Jaua. The lack of clarity surrounding Chávez’s condition raised concerns among the opposition over who was charged with running the country during the president’s absence, and, while his return calmed party officials and anxious supporters, it left questions hanging over the structure of political succession in the Bolivarian Republic’s highly personalized political system.

Chávez had been convalescing in Cuba since the beginning of June from what official government channels described as a “pelvic abscess.” On June 30 Chávez revealed in a televised address he was being treated for cancer, directly contradicting claims from his own administration. The typically gregarious and confident politician spoke for an uncharacteristically brief 15 minutes, appearing gaunt and somber, saying: "I had neglected my health and I was reluctant to have medical checkups. It was a fundamental mistake for a revolutionary.” Just five days later, however, Chávez was unexpectedly back on Venezuelan soil, claiming he could not miss the bicentennial party. The next day he was on the balcony of the Miraflores presidential palace in his green fatigues and red beret, cheered by thousands of supporters who gathered to welcome their president home. Though visibly weakened, Chávez assured the crowd that: “we shall win this battle, together,” but was unable to attend the parade in person due to his health.

According to a June 6 Datanalisis poll, Chávez has a 49 percent approval rating and a 46 percent non-approval rating. Luis Vicente Leon, political analyst and head of Datanalisis, believes that behind Chávez’s return, “the message for his own people, the leaders of the Chavismo, is ‘I am here, I am alive, and I am controlling power.’” Chávez’s time away stirred up questions over the soundness of Venezuela’s political institutions, especially in light of the forthcoming 2012 presidential elections. Americas Quarterly’s Christopher Sabatini writes: “The debate—and fear—swirling around…Chávez's absence demonstrates the institution-less condition that twelve years of his government have left Venezuela in.” Elías Jaua, vice president since 2010, is legally next in line to power under the 1999 constitution, but the hard-line loyalist brushed away executive responsibility while Chávez was in Cuba, preferring to let the president sign laws from his bed in Havana. Adán Chávez, the president’s brother, is said to lack his brother’s charisma, but is also considered to be “in the line of succession.” Rafael Poleo, a Venezuelan political analyst, believes that while either of these party hard-liners could assume power in the short term if need be, in the medium term the more pragmatic military “will impose itself. They have a more coherent approach and also have the guns.”

The opposition, which has unified under the mantle of the Democratic Unified Panel (MUD, for its Spanish initials) have voiced concern over the country’s political stability in the face of the current crisis: "For the Republic, the best thing that can happen is for the president to recover and to take over full governance, so that the natural political process can evolve, which is to carry out elections next year,” said Teodoro Petkoff, editor of the opposition newspaper TalCual. In February they will hold an open primary, and contenders include Governors Henrique Capriles and Pablo Pérez, and the mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma. Leopoldo López, head of the opposition Popular Will party, was considered a strong candidate until he was disqualified from running—along with an estimated 575 other candidates. The government has accused López of mishandling state funds, charges he is currently contesting at the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.

Learn More:

• Visit President Chávez’s webpage.
• Watch President Chavez’s June 30 speech in which he announced his condition.
• Follow President Chávez on Twitter: @chavezcandanga.
• Watch highlights of the bicentennial parade from Venezolana de Televisión.
• El País has a guide to Chávez’s possible succesors.
• Read an op-ed in El País by Leopoldo López on the current political situation in Venezuela.
• Read a report on the state of organized crime in Venezuela.