AS/COA Insider: Carin Zissis on the Inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum

AS/COA Online: Ahead of Sheinbaum’s inauguration, what is the atmosphere around Mexico City right now? Is there excitement for this inauguration in Mexico?

Carin Zissis: I think that there is excitement for having the first woman president, but it's important to consider the fact that the last few weeks in Mexico have been complicated.

There have been constitutional reforms that have been getting approved with the new Congress, where the ruling party holds a majority in both houses. There was a massive march in Mexico City for the 10-year anniversary of the Ayotzinapa disappearances, which raised questions about what has been accomplished in terms of violence and security. The country has also been facing extreme weather like intense flooding in Acapulco. In fact, Claudia Sheinbaum has said that on October 2, the day after she's inaugurated, she's going to Acapulco to assess the damage. There's also been an outbreak of violence in the state of Sinaloa due to fighting between organized crime groups.

So, there's a lot going on in Mexico leading up to this inauguration that’s creating a difficult environment just as Sheinbaum is taking office. I think there is a lot of excitement about her being the country's first presidenta, but there's been this period of complicated issues that foretell challenges the next government will face.

AS/COA Online: What are the expectations for Sheinbaum outside of Mexico?

Zissis: If you read coverage right now of Mexico and of this handover of power from AMLO to Sheinbaum, there is a continual sort of question that's being asked: What will she be like as president?

She has pledged to continue his movement, the Fourth Transformation, but many have questions about what that's going look like. She said her presidency is going to be the second level of the Fourth Transformation. Does that mean that she will govern distinctly? What are the ways that she will be different than him? And that's something that investors are wondering about and watching. We've seen warnings from ratings agencies because of the judicial reform and concerns about a fragile economy, so there's a sense of uncertainty.

AS/COA Online: On that, Mexico just saw the passage of a controversial judicial reform by Morena, the party of AMLO and Sheinbaum. How do people connect Sheinbaum to these reforms? What’s the future of her constitutional agenda?

Zissis: The judicial reform was a priority for AMLO and was approved during this period of the new Congress taking office in September while he still was in the presidency. The reform has been controversial because it's unprecedented. It's going to require that Mexico puts together national elections for judges, including the Supreme Court, as soon as next year, and it's a huge experiment for which we don't know the outcome and what it means in terms of judicial certainty. The impact of that judicial reform will be an issue that Sheinbaum will have to deal with as she takes office.

More broadly, the judicial reform was part of a package of 20 reforms, 18 of them constitutional reforms, that AMLO unveiled in February this year. In doing so, he set the agenda for the presidential campaigns and he also set an agenda for Sheinbaum.

When she launched her campaign, she pledged to continue with these reforms. For example, as soon as she takes office, it's expected that there'll be a reform related to the federal electricity commission—an energy related reform. She's expected to take up another reform related to railroads. And these are reforms that were part of his package.

AS/COA Online: What are the key issues during the first months of Sheinbaum’s presidency?

Zissis: An important thing to remember is that Sheinbaum is taking over the reins from an extremely popular president, who is leaving office with approval around 70 percent. And initial polls show that she's coming into office with approval of around 70 percent.

Now, one of the areas where AMLO, in particular, ended up not polling so well for most Mexicans was security. If you look at current polling, the top priority that Mexicans have named for Sheinbaum is solving the problem of violence. This is an area where Mexicans will be seeking to see results on early in her term. One question will be the effect of a new reform that was just passed, which transfers control of the National Guard from civil to military control. There are a lot of questions about how that could affect her security policy.

AS/COA Online: Sheinbaum will be the first Mexican woman president. What do you expect to see from her regarding gender equality?

Zissis: There are a couple things to note. One thing is that she is creating a women's secretariat, suggesting a greater focus on women's issues during her government.

Beyond the president, Mexico has parity laws in place that mean you not only have parity in Congress, but 13 out of 32 governors are going to be women. We see a parity in a lot of different levels of government. So it's partially about having a woman president and it's partially about having women throughout leadership.

Does this mean that problems—entrenched problems like violence against women or closing the economic gap—are going to be solved overnight? No, but it does suggest more people coming into power with an understanding of what these policies mean for women in Mexico.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.