AS/COA Insider: Eric Farnsworth on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Resignation

AS/COA Online: Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has been building a platform based on cutting taxes, shrinking the state, and advancing fossil fuels. And, there is a general discontent with immigration policy in the country. How has Poilievre responded to Trump's threats so far? What can we expect from their relationship should he become the prime minister?

Farnsworth: Well, at this point, Poilievre has really been focused on Trudeau and trying to distance himself from the Trudeau’s policies on the economy, on housing, inflation, drugs, and migration. But these agenda items, although seen from a Canadian perspective, are clearly consistent with what President-elect Trump is looking for in terms of the bilateral relationship as well. So, it's a scenario where the agendas may be somewhat aligned, and at a personal level, there may be some real affinity there. But at the same time, the relationship between the United States and Canada is always somewhat fraught because it's so close that sometimes we forget that we're two independent sovereign countries. And that leads to some misunderstandings over time.

And we've already seen some of the social media posts about Canada being the 51st state. Whether that's in jest, that's something that a prime minister of Canada is not going to be able to simply accept. The idea that Canada is going to fall automatically into lockstep with the United States, I think, is something that we have to take with a bit of skepticism, particularly as we move toward 2026, where the three countries in North America—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—are required to reevaluate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is really the economic bedrock for North American cooperation.

AS/COA Online: What opportunities should the next Canadian prime minister tackle for the region?

Farnsworth: I think Canada has a really important role to play in the Western Hemisphere, Latin America, and particularly the Caribbean, where the country has a very strong traditional footprint as a democracy. Canada has been and needs to continue to be a very strong voice on democracy issues in the Western Hemisphere, whether it's on Venezuela, Haiti, or other countries. Canadians have a different credibility when they talk about those issues in Latin America and the Caribbean than perhaps the United States does.

There is also a very important role that Canada can play on mining and critical materials. Look, as we look forward to energy transition and we continue to pursue it globally, you must have certain materials that will help us to get to a carbon free future. Canada is a world leader in mining and in critical materials with the opportunity to develop those resources domestically and worldwide. The country has been doing that and it can play a really important role in terms of appropriate development of these resources in an environmentally sound way, in a way that respects indigenous rights, which Prime Minister Trudeau has made a priority of his administration.

AS/COA Online: How can Canada’s next government position itself when it comes to U.S.-China trade wars?

Farnsworth: I think Canada has an important role to play in the China context as well. First of all, by keeping North America strong as an economic engine of global growth, so that we are productive together. That will help all three of our economies, including Mexico, be as competitive as possible with China.

Canada can spend more on its defense, not just on hard assets like ships and planes, but also on cyber assets as well. And the country can really be a partner on these issues with the United States and others, not just in North America. And there are allegations of Chinese meddling in Canadian elections and really playing a very disruptive role in Canadian politics. It has to be, in my view, soundly rejected, but in the context of working together on broader geostrategic issues, Canada has a very important role to play as a member of NATO, as a one of the member countries in the G7 group, but also a country with a huge coast on the Western part of the continent, which really is an important asset in terms of facing the Asia-Pacific. And in my view, Canada could and really should play a larger role on these issues in coordination with the Quad, a partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.