Silhouette on a Venezuelan flag at a voting center in Madrid, Spain. (AP)

Silhouette on a Venezuelan flag at a voting center in Madrid, Spain. (AP)

 

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AS/COA Insider: Eric Farnsworth on Venezuela's Election and What Comes Next

AS/COA’s vice president explains that, despite the Maduro regime’s electoral fraud, Venezuelan voters turned out to “take a risk for democracy.”

Despite intimidation and vote-rigging tactics, Venezuelans turned out in droves to participate in the July 28 presidential elections. Still, amid global concerns about the lack of transparency in the results, Nicolás Maduro claimed victory, affirming the electoral agency’s result that gave him 51 percent of the vote. But the opposition’s candidate, Edmundo González, rejected the results, given exit polls indicating he held a strong advantage. 

“Where do we go from here? Do the Venezuelan people accept this declaration by the regime?” said Eric Farnsworth, AS/COA vice president. Farnsworth covers the international reaction to the vote, what it might mean for the U.S. elections, and the resilience of Venezuelan voters.

Eric Farnsworth

AS/COA Online: Over the course of several elections, the Maduro government has fixed the odds in its favor, and the July 28 vote is looking like it was a similar case. What made the 2024 elections different? 

Eric Farnsworth: What made them different this time was hope. Maria Corina Machado, who was not on the ballot because she had been arbitrarily disqualified by the regime, gave that to the people of Venezuela, both in the country and to the very large diaspora outside the country: hope that change was actually possible. 

Despite that, Maduro and the regime tried to do everything to make that vision a non-reality. And in fact, they ended up doing that. They took steps to complicate the voting process. They printed ballots that were intentionally confusing. They used intimidation and other techniques designed to suppress the opposition vote. They muzzled the press before the election in terms of what it could cover about the opposition campaign. 

In some ways, the tactics were the same ones always used by the Maduro regime, but what made it really different this time was hope and the support of the international community. The people of Venezuela overwhelmingly voted in favor of opposition candidate Edmundo González. He has declared that he won the most votes and therefore is the next president of Venezuela. So now we have two people claiming victory. It's a scenario that continues to evolve very rapidly. 

AS/COA Online: You mentioned the international community. What have the reactions been globally? 

Farnsworth: Of course, you've had some countries come out and say that they are fully supporting Maduro—such as Cuba, China, Russia, and Bolivia; countries that you would anticipate would do that. 

Then, you had countries like Argentina, which strongly supported González, calling Maduro a dictator, and saying it's time for him to go. As for the United States, Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke during his trip in Japan, expressing concerns about the vote. 

A number of countries have tried to take that middle course, which is to say: “Look, we have real concerns about the vote. We don't think that the vote that was announced by the CNE, or the electoral commission, reflects the reality or the will of the people, and we’re looking for additional clarification.” 

And then you've had some countries, which really just haven't taken much of a stand at all. I think that's interesting—particularly those countries within Latin America itself. 

It's an evolving situation; I think that will continue to develop. 

AS/COA Online: What implications does the outcome of this election have for the United States, and what does it mean for U.S. elections? 

Farnsworth: At the end of the day, most citizens of the United States are not going to vote for the U.S. president based on what happened in Venezuela or what happened on July 28. There certainly is a discussion here about the effectiveness of U.S. policy toward Venezuela over the last several years, and I think that's a discussion we'll be having over the coming months. 

The broader implications in terms of what it means for the United States are twofold. Number one is migration. The Maduro regime, by declaring itself once again to be the victor, is taking away the prospects for real and meaningful change in Venezuela, and there could very well be a new migration surge from Venezuela. There are already 8 million Venezuelan citizens—fully one quarter of the entire Venezuelan population—living outside of the country. That could increase dramatically in the coming days and weeks. In fact, polling suggests many of those Venezuelan citizens may end up in the United States, or certainly trying to get to there. 

Energy is clearly an issue as well. Venezuela continues to have the world's largest proven reserves of oil, and many will continue to fight for access to that. The amount of production of Venezuelan crude right now does not meaningfully impact global markets one way or the other. But it is a consideration, particularly as the United States goes fully into the U.S. elections. The price of gas at the pump and inflation are always issues in the United States. 

AS/COA Online: You pointed out that one thing that made this different is hope. Is there something, despite the results and the intimidation, that makes you hopeful at this point? What could happen next? 

Farnsworth: I remain hopeful because of the resilience of the Venezuelan people. That’s how we got here in the first place: a refusal to give up after over 25 years of chavismo that's become increasingly oppressive and dictatorial. And yet the people are still willing to go to the polls in historic numbers and take a risk for democracy because it is a risk to vote for the opposition in an authoritarian country. Their resiliency gives me hope for the future. 

The question is: How do you mobilize? Where do we go from here? Do the Venezuelan people accept this declaration by the regime? Or do they decide to fight back in some way, which is to say through protesting, through people power—demanding a different approach, demanding publication of the vote totals and transparency. 

What does the regime do in response? Clearly, the military and the security forces are the determining factor here. The question is whether they choose to remain loyal to the regime, whether they choose to stay neutral, or whether they choose to throw in their lot with the Venezuelan people and the Constitution of Venezuela. I think that's an open question, but most observers at this point would suggest that the military will likely remain loyal to the regime—at least at the senior levels. 

These are issues we'll be watching very closely. 

This interview was edited for length and clarity.

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