AS/COA Insider: José Enrique Arrioja on Edmundo González's Exile and Venezuela's Future

AS/COA Online: Opposition leader Edmundo González, who won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 election, landed in Madrid on Sunday to seek asylum. What does this mean for González and his leadership in Venezuela? 

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José Enrique Arrioja: The fact that González is in exile, regardless of winning most of the votes, gives him a precarious position to lead any possible resolution to this crisis. You just have to look to recent examples of other Venezuela opposition leaders in exile, like Juan Guaidó in Miami and Leopoldo López in Spain. Both of them sort of disappeared as figures from the political arena in Venezuela. And something similar to this may and most likely will happen with González.

This exile will provide him with a bit of reprieve from the oppression and the ostracization of the government. Just a week ago, a court in Caracas issued a warrant of arrest against him. He's trying to protect himself and his loved ones. If we just see this from his personal perspective, he has sought shelter in a country—Spain—that has played a key role in previous Venezuelan negotiations between the government and the opposition. Spain’s most recent participation gives additional meaning to the fact that Edmundo is seeking asylum in Madrid.

However, González leaving the country will trigger a serious series of events within Venezuela and, more particularly, within the opposition. Since the election authority announced Maduro as winner and didn’t release voting tallies, the opposition has been fractured while trying to coalesce and prevent Maduro from beginning a third term as president in January. 

AS/COA Online: The most high-profile opposition figure left in the country is now María Corina Machado. What does this mean for her and for other opposition figures left on the ground? And specifically, could you talk a little bit about the precarious situation of the opposition figures sheltering at the Argentine embassy in Caracas?

Arrioja: María Corina Machado continues to be the leading voice, the most active and the most confrontational leader in the Venezuelan opposition against the Maduro regime. She reiterated, after González going into exile, that she is going to remain in Caracas, that she's determined to continue this quest to try to dislodge Maduro and his inner circle from power. She’s in a really hot spot, politically speaking, vis-a-vis the government, who sees her as the biggest threat to their plans and to the future. González’s move puts Machado in an even tougher situation, and it is difficult to predict what is going to happen with her determination to continue withstanding the oppressive regime.  

On the issue of the Argentine embassy, this provides the international community another example of how the regime is actually enacting this crackdown against the opposition. We have six members of the opposition that have been granted asylum in the Argentine embassy. A month ago, Brazil took over custodial control of the embassy after Argentina suspended its diplomatic relationships with Venezuela. Nevertheless, the government has been surrounding the premises and is practically threatening to invade, going against international law and diplomatic agreements preserving the neutrality of places like this. It's a revealing example of how the government is actually dictating their own rules and not considering any laws, agreements, or international accords. The regime is determined to try to just simply obliterate any political opposition still standing in the country. 

AS/COA Online: What have the last couple weeks shown us about the state of the Maduro regime? 

Arrioja: We are seeing a regime that is pretty much careless about predicaments, norms, or any type of rational legal terms when it comes to interacting with the opposition. We are talking about a new level—probably even an unprecedented level—of retaliation against the opposition.  

We're seeing that what I call a new stage, a new era in Venezuela. We are transitioning—or evolving—from the chavista state, set by former President Hugo Chávez, to the Maduro state, where the rules are written by the will and the hubris of Maduro. All the institutions are following his specific orders—regardless of right or wrong. It is particularly difficult for any political actor to deal with this within the country or within the international community.  

AS/COA Online: Let's end with the response of the international community. How will González relocating to Spain change the calculus of countries towards the July 28 election?

Arrioja: With all the negotiations and the efforts to mediate the crisis from Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, the decision of González to go into exile demonstrates their strategy has failed. The Maduro regime has not been willing to negotiate or pay any attention to the recommendations that three countries have made since a few days after July 28. Those efforts have clearly failed and this spells troubles going forward.

There’s also trouble with the United States and its position against Maduro. We have to see what kind of response the U.S. government will be taking against the regime and if they're going to reimpose the majority of the sanctions that they lifted back in October. If so, what additional measures, like personal sanctions or confiscation of assets—will be in the portfolio of the new U.S. strategy toward Venezuela? Still, this all comes as the attention of the United States is focused on its own November elections.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.