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Bolsonaro and the Prisoner’s Dilemma

By Thomas Traumann

The former president’s possible arrest would reshape the electoral process into a broader political conflict, challenging the right.

RIO DE JANEIRO — The announcement from the Brazilian attorney general’s office that former President Jair Bolsonaro and 33 others, including seven retired Army generals, will face charges for plotting and attempting a coup d’état marks the start of Brazil's 2026 presidential campaign. Even many loyal supporters believe Bolsonaro, the country's most popular right-wing leader of the 21st century, is likely to be found guilty by the Supreme Court, which could bring a sentence of up to 43 years in prison. While the exact timing of a potential conviction and sentencing is unclear, most...

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