Brian Winter on What the U.S. Election Results Mean for Latin America

AS/COA Vice President and Americas Quarterly Editor-in-Chief Brian Winter spoke at an event with the Young Professional of the Americas (YPA) on November 14 about the results of the U.S. election and what a second Donald Trump term could mean for Latin America. In a seminar-style conversation at AS/COA's headquarters in New York, Winter detailed his thoughts on what the reelection of Trump means for immigration, U.S.-Chinese competition, tariffs, and more.

The following is a lightly edited transcript of some of Winter’s remarks at the event. YPA members had the opportunity to engage in an open Q&A with the editor-in-chief. Learn more about becoming a YPA member and future events.

YPA: Brian, what are you overarching thoughts on the results of the U.S. election and what they mean for Latin America?

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Brian Winter: I've been working with Latin America and Latin American politics for almost 25 years now. And during almost all of this time, there's a phrase that I've heard over and over again, which is that the United States should pay more attention to Latin America.

Well, as the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for. I actually think that this second version of the Trump administration could be more focused on Latin America than any U.S. government in maybe 30 years.

People who were involved with Trump's government on Latin American policy the first time are sending messages about why they think that this next administration will pay more attention to the region than the first Trump government did. It will be maybe the most attention on Latin America, I think, since the Clinton years, which were the years of NAFTA and the first Summit of the Americas, way back in 1994.

Let me talk about four reasons why I think Trump will be so much more focused on Latin America than he was before. The first one I think is probably obvious, and that's that immigration was one of the two issues most responsible for getting him elected. The other issue, of course, was inflation.

Immigration is an issue with which I think we're all familiar, but the panorama has actually changed since Trump was president the first time. First of all because his mandate is stronger this time. But the portfolio of immigration—specifically undocumented immigration—is also different than it was eight years ago. Eight years ago, most of the immigration was coming from Mexico and the countries of the Northern Triangle in Central America. That's, of course, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. This time around, it's vastly more diverse. It touches almost every country in the region, led by Venezuelans, Cubans, Haitians, Ecuadorians, and Peruvians. Even the transit map has changed because so many of these migrants are now coming through the Darien Gap on their way to the United States. I'm pretty sure that migration is going be front and center in the bilateral relationship with many countries in a way that it really was not the first time around.

The second reason Latin America will feature more prominently has to do with trade and tariffs. Trump spoke about them a lot during the campaign. There's a lot of doubt about what he's going do once he's in office, whether he's going to follow through on some of these proposals. But we know that he will use tariffs as a weapon, if necessary, in order to get not just the Mexican government, but some of these other governments, to cooperate. And that’s not just on issues of migration, but on issues of drug interdiction, which of course is another important topic for him and his base. His vice president comes from a family that was touched by opioid addiction, like so many other families in America.

The third reason is China and the competition between Washington and Beijing. He has a secretary of state in Marco Rubio who is focused on the topic and is the highest-ranking Latino ever in a U.S. government, assuming that he's confirmed. He will bring knowledge of the region to the uppermost levels of the U.S. government in a way that I personally have wanted for years.

Rubio is a figure who knows the region well and is very inclined to see it through the lens of left versus right. For example, Senator Rubio has said on multiple occasions that it's the socialist governments of Latin America who are leading their countries into the arms of Beijing. That's just not true. Some of the biggest proponents of engagement with China in recent years have been figures like Mauricio Macri in Argentina, Iván Duque in Colombia, and Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador. And all of them are right-of-center. So, I think this is a case where sort of the left–right prism doesn't really apply, but that's Rubio’s worldview. And so that's likely to generate a lot of attention toward the region as well.

And then the fourth reason we will see more engagement is allies. There are several leaders in the region who are thrilled by this result like Javier Milei in Argentina and Santiago Peña in Paraguay. To a lesser extent, that includes Daniel Noboa in Ecuador and Luis Lacalle Pou in Uruguay, who is leaving. These are all leaders that are part of a right that has become more cohesive in recent years. Many of them are perfectly willing to march in lockstep with Donald Trump because they either see him as part of a shared global movement, or because they think, in the case of Milei, that it will aid their countries in some tangible way. And look, we know how much Donald Trump likes to have people all around the world who share many of the same ideas.

You add all that up, and I think it's going be a lot of attention for the region over the next couple years. Some of it will be negative. Some of it will be positive. It will be welcomed by some and not welcomed by others.