Chávez Returns: Now What?

Elected but un-inaugurated president Hugo Chavez’ surprise return to Caracas on February 19 has renewed questions about his ongoing recovery from cancer and capacity to govern.  Having gone to Cuba December 10 where he underwent a fourth round of treatment for an as-yet undisclosed form of cancer, Chavez remained in seclusion for over two months, incommunicado with the people who had just re-elected him in October and missing his own, constitutionally-mandated inauguration on January 10.  Reports indicate that he was unable even to visit with leaders who traveled to Cuba specifically to see him, including Brazil’s former president Lula and Argentina’s current president. 

Chavez’ return in the dead of night, announced via twitter rather than with a public rally that might otherwise have been expected, indicates that he is alive but also raises significant questions about the state of his health and capacity to govern over the near term. 

This is important.  According to Venezuela’s constitution, new elections must be called at this point in a presidential term if the president is declared to be incapacitated, unable to perform the duties of the office.  These provisions are part of Venezuela’s new constitution which Chavez himself proposed and passed.  At the same time, the opposition argues that Chavez’ previous presidential mandate expired on January 10 and, since he has not been re-inaugurated, this has now plunged the country into a constitutional crisis.  According to this view, acting president Nicolas Maduro has no particular authority to govern, either, because he was appointed to his vice presidential position by Chavez—who has not yet been inaugurated—rather than elected.

This is ultimately, perhaps, a largely academic question for the Venezuelan people themselves to sort out, given the lack of active support for this view from outside Venezuela.  At the same time, Chavez’ return thrusts the question back into the spotlight, because nobody other than a small group of fiercely loyal Venezuelans and Cuban government officials knows the true state of Chavez’ health or his prognosis.  His health has been treated as a state secret, more akin to the Cold War maneuverings of the Kremlin that to the expectations of modern democratic societies.  Therefore, there can be no informed judgment at this point as to his further capacity to govern or, to the extent he is on the way to a full if slow recovery, when that will occur. 

In the meantime, officials are busy issuing decrees and making decisions in the name of the president, including a major currency devaluation that will be felt across all sectors of society.  The economy is troubled.  Shortages of basic consumer products are increasing, as is inflation.  Crime is also up, according to observers.  To the extent circumstances deteriorate further, and Chavez’ ability to lead the country is not soon clarified, the political legitimacy of the government may increasingly be called into question.  At that point, a crisis in governance would occur, with an uncertain outcome.

That is the reason why Chavez returned to Venezuela in the first place, as it was increasingly untenable for him to claim the mantle of the presidency yet be out of the country indefinitely.  But it is also causing the Venezuelan people and other interested parties to consider a future without Chavez.  Hand-picked successor Maduro has neither the charisma nor the same political support that Chavez enjoys; while he will gain the benefit of the doubt from Chavez’ supporters in the near term, in order to build his own legitimacy he will have to show that he is not just loyal to the Chavez agenda, but also able to carry it out and even increase the momentum of the Bolivarian revolution. 

In the end, that may be good for Chavez’ supporters, but bad for Venezuela, as the country continues to chart an unsustainable populist path.  The Chavez experiment is showing its age, but the pillars supporting the movement are now well entrenched and will not easily be dislodged.  Expect to see an uncertain and complicated period for Venezuela in the days and weeks ahead.           

*Eric Farnsworth is vicepresident of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas in Washington D.C.