Chávez's Health Sets off Speculation in Venezuela and Abroad

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s health continues to raise concerns at home and abroad. He declared himself cancer-free after an operation and four rounds of chemotherapy last year, but announced a possible recurrence last week and said he would undergo surgery in Cuba. The Venezuelan government closely guards details about the president’s health, frequently clouded by contradictory information—state officials vehemently denied media rumors of the president’s ill health until Chávez’s announcement last week. With Chávez prepared to compete for a fourth term in presidential elections in October, many observers find the lack of information troubling. Though the public remains unaware of the type of cancer or the extent of the disease, Chávez’s recent health troubles raise questions for Venezuelans and for countries dependent on Venezuelan largesse.

Given the upcoming presidential election, the question of Chávez’s health may be creating anxiety within his own party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Led in various incarnations by Chávez since his 1999 electoral win, Chávez’s personality dominates the party, which lacks an apparent successor. “Chavistas have unfortunately reached that ideological point where they can’t even imagine any other president,” Chávez biographer Alberto Barrera told TIME’s Tim Padgett. When Chávez first revealed his diagnosis in June 2011, various options arose for his replacement, including his Vice President Elias Jaua, Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, and his brother Adán. Now, party leaders favor longtime Chávez ally and PSUV President Diosdado Cabello. However, Padgett says none of these candidates have Chávez’s charisma or a strong connection with voters, an important consideration when facing the young and charismatic Henrique Capriles Radonski, winner of February’s opposition primary. A number of polls after Chávez’s first cancer announcement found low levels of support for PSUV officials besides Chávez, suggesting the PSUV would face an uphill battle without him. 

Given Chávez’s popularity, Capriles avoids direct attacks on the president and responded via Twitter to the news of his illness by wishing the president a speedy recovery and a long life. Polls dating from before the primary showed Capriles to be competitive with Chávez. Luis Vicente Leon, the director of Venezuela’s Datanalisis polling firm, commented that he expects the tightest presidential race since 1998, when Chávez first won the presidency. Some speculate Chávez’s absence or an extended convalescence could give Capriles an advantage. If Chávez remains sidelined in recovery for several months, “that could leave Capriles free to hog the spotlight back home, making personal appearances at school openings and giving speeches as the campaign builds toward the October vote,” writes Christopher Toothaker of the Associated Press. But Foreign Policy’s Transitions blog wonders if Chávez’s illness could just as easily become a liability for Capriles, with the president using his “storied communication skills to play the sympathy card and eke out a win.” Financial Times’ Beyond Brics blog points out both sides must vie for the 36 percent of voters classified who remain undecided. 

Beyond Venezuela, a future without Chávez would also have serious implications for the countries dependent on Venezuelan aid, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Syria. As part of the Bolivarian Alliance, Cuba and Nicaragua receive benefits from Venezuela ranging from subsidized oil to low-interest loans, to investment on favorable terms. The latest available figures from 2008 indicate that Venezuelan aid accounted for 15 percent of the Cuban economy. Similarly, Nicaragua receives nearly $600 million a year from Venezuela. A sudden aid cut would be especially damaging for Cuba given its isolation: “Without the support of Venezuela, the traditional state-centric political and social economic model—which the government-party only wants to ‘update,’ not change fundamentally—could suffer its most serious setback since the collapse of the USSR,” reports Cuba’s Havana Times. Additionally, Venezuela was one of a handful of countries to vote against a UN resolution condemning violence in Syria last month, and continues to ship fuel to the country. Moreover, Bloggings by Boz’s James Bosworth wonders if Chávez’s cancer recurrence influenced the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) decision to renounce kidnapping. The FARC may see Chávez’s possible departure as a sign that guerilla group’s movements would be more restricted on the Venezuelan side of the border and that some FARC allies in the Chávez government would lose power.

Given the blackout on information regarding Chávez’s health, the future remains uncertain. However, reporting from Twitter this morning, the president himself assured his followers of his recovery. “I’m soaring like the condor,” he wrote. 

Learn More:

• Read an AS/COA Hemispheric Update on the Venezuelan elections.
• Access an Americas Quarterly web exclusive by Caracas Chronicles author Juan Nagel about opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski’s vision for Venezuela. 
• Read Tim Padgett’s piece in TIME’s Global Spin blog about how the PSUV will handle Chávez’s illness.
• Read an Associated Press piece on how Chávez’s allies might fare in a post-Chávez world. 
• Follow President Chávez on Twitter for the latest updates on his recovery, @chavezcandanga.