Coalition Tensions in Chile
Coalition Tensions in Chile
Ahead of the October municipal elections, Chile’s two main political coalitions are showing signs of internal conflict. Divisions in the Concertación and Alianza camps could have large consequences for the 2009 presidential race.
While party infighting and a protracted election cycle may bring to mind U.S. presidential elections, Chile appears to face a similarly arduous process a little over two years into Michelle Bachelet’s presidency. October’s municipal elections have brought Chilean party tensions to the forefront, with possible repercussions for the 2009 presidential elections.
For the first time, Chile’s powerful political coalition, Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia (Concertación), plans to submit two separate lists of candidates for the upcoming municipal elections. This decision follows an effort by Bachelet, along with former Presidents Patricio Aylwin, Ricardo Lagos, and Eduardo Frei, to convince two of the Concertación’s main parties—the Partido Radical Social Demócrata (PRSD) and the Partido por la Democracia (PPD)—to maintain a unified list. Hit with allegations of corruption and mismanagement of public funds, the Concertación appears to be at its weakest in two decades.
Since forming in 1988, the center-left Concertación has won every presidential election following Chile’s return to democracy in 1990. The coalition's four largest parties consist of the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC), and the Partido Socialista (PS), in addition to the PPD and the PRSD. The recent split is tantamount to a mini-rebellion of the two smaller parties against the larger parties which have exchanged control of the presidency.
After failing to win an absolute majority in 2005, Bachelet squared off against the right-wing Alianza por Chile coalition candidate, businessman Sebastián Piñera, and won with 53.5 percent of the vote. She became Chile's first female president, hailed by national and international press for breaking the gender barrier and for the almost fairy-tale narrative of a former survivor of torture becoming president. But soon after she assumed power in March 2006, massive student demonstrations over government proposals to increase exam fees and limit transportation passes broke out, damaging her approval ratings. The chaotic implementation (PDF) of the TranSantiago transportation system, planned during the administration of her predecessor Lagos, further compounded the situation.
In 2007, the Concertación lost control of both houses of Congress when five PCD legislators left in protest after senator and ex-party president Adolfo Zaldívar was expelled. Two more Concertación representatives were lost on charges of corruption.
Given the Concertación's internal disputes, speculation is already growing about the 2009 presidential candidates. As the incumbent, Bachelet is ineligible to run for a consecutive presidential term. Both Lagos and the OAS Secretary-General José Miguel Insulza have indicated their interest in pursuing the nomination.
While the Concertación copes with a number of difficulties, the opposition must confront its own set of challenges. Alianza—including the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) and the Renovación Nacional—also faces a power struggle.
Amidst accusations of irregularities in UDI-controlled municipalities, Party President and UDI Senator Hernán Larraín will step down. This leaves José Antonio Kast and Juan Antonio Coloma as the frontrunners in the first competitive election for party presidency, with party hardliners supporting Coloma and the younger generation behind Kast. Concrete policy differences between the two are fairly minimal, yet Coloma's relatively greater experience and Kast's push for innovation provoke a more aesthetic distinction that nonetheless speaks to different forces within the party.
Piñera remains the likely presidential candidate for Alianza, and leads early Chilean presidential polls. Piñera’s support is at 33.7 percent, easily outpolling Lagos (14.5 percent) and Insulza (7.7 percent). Despite this strong showing, UDI took the unprecedented step of distancing itself from Piñera in a dispute over recent educational legislation. It remains to be seen how this will affect the future presidential elections.
