Colombia Readies for Runoff Vote

Juan Manuel Santos appears to be a shoe-in for the June 20 presidential runoff in Colombia. Polls place the former defense minister as many as 37 points ahead of his rival, ex-Mayor of Bogota Antanas Mockus. As a former cabinet member for popular president, Álvaro Uribe, Santos could represent safe continuity for voters on Sunday. Moreover, this week's release of four hostages held for over a decade by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) coincided with the close of campaigning and could win more support for Santos. But electoral victory does not depend on polls alone, as the first round of elections proved.

During the May 30 elections, Santos won more than double the votes of his top contender, pulling in 46.6 percent compared to Mockus’ 21.5. The Green Party candidate won the majority of ballots in just one of 32 departments. Yet polls taken a week before that election forecast a different outcome, placing the two contenders in a dead heat and predicting that Mockus could win in the second round. Instead, Santos came within a few percentage points of avoiding the June 20 runoff. Mockus has seen his support decrease since then.

Mockus rose to the top of the polls on what became known as the ola verde (green tide), propelled by social media and supporters weary from Uribe administration scandals ranging from wiretapping to human rights concerns. “History is written with a pen and not with blood,” wrote Mockus while campaigning, stressing transparency, education, and innovation as central to his campaign. When Sunday’s vote came around, “the tide was orange” rather than green, reported La Silla Vacía, alluding to the color that represent Santos’ U Party.

Santos’ role as defense minister during the Uribe administration plays a role in his strength as a candidate. He was credited with the dramatic rescue of former political and longtime FARC hostage Ingrid Betancourt. Santos’ candidacy was buoyed by improved public security conditions under the Uribe administration. Official figures report that the FARC’s membership dropped by nearly half since 2001—from 16,000 to 8,500. The rescue of four more hostages on Sunday and Monday served as reminder of the damage done to the guerilla group during the Uribe administration, including under Santos’ watch. The hostages, all former military and police officers, spent 12 years in captivity. The Christian Science Monitor’s Bogota correspondent Sibylla Brodzinsky called the rescue “a serious blow” to the FARC that would also give “Santos a boost as the frontrunner."

An economist and journalist by training, Santos also served as a minister in the cabinets of Presidents Cesar Gaviria and Andres Pastrana and is the cousin of the current vice president. In a profile, Semana calls Santos “pragmatic” and “a good manager” who “has spent years preparing himself to be president.” He suggested after the May 30 elections that Mockus’ proposal to raise taxes led to his rival’s downfall at the voting booth. A new article in Dinero explores Santos’ economic proposal and suggests that tax and labor market reforms will be necessary for financial stability and job creation.

Learn more:

• AS/COA holds its annual conference in Bogota on June 17.
• Read an AS/COA analysis of the first round of elections.
• Website of Colombia’s main electoral agency.
• Semana offers profiles of the candidates and what each has to offer voters.
• La Silla Vacía analyzes the two leaders in an article that likens Mockus to a leader and Santos to a manager.
• Terra’s votebien asked the candidates 14 questions related to top election issues, ranging from foreign relations to human rights to health and education. Access their answers.