Colombian Election Runs Close in the Home Stretch

As campaigning closes for Colombia’s May 30 presidential elections, polls placed the two frontrunners neck and neck in what has become a dramatic race between Bogota’s ex-Mayor Antanas Mockus and former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos. Green Party candidate Mockus surged on what’s become known as the ola verde—or green wave—to become a top contender. He faces Santos, seen as an heir to the popular president, Álvaro Uribe. After a long wait for an official decision on whether Uribe would be able to pursue a third term, Colombia’s Constitutional Court rejected a reelection referendum in February and the presidential race got off to a gallop. Although several candidates remain in the running, the competition became a two-horse race between Mockus and Santos in recent weeks. Still, Colombians may face another wait come May 30. Polls show neither Mockus nor Santos winning more than 50 percent of the vote, the needed portion to avoid a runoff election. A second round of elections would occur June 20.

Social media and his supporters’ hopes for change helped propel Mockus, a former mathematician and university rector, to a frontrunner position. After winning the Green Party primary in May, he polled with just 10 percent support. The rise in the polls began when he chose as his running mate Sergio Fajardo, also a former academic and ex-mayor of Medellin who—like Mockus—was credited with transforming the city he governed. A new poll by Invamer Gallup places Mockus in second place during the first round of elections with 35.4 percent of the vote, just over three points behind Santos. The same survey forecasts Mockus winning in the second round by over 5 percent. Should Mockus end up the victor, he would represent the world’s first Green Party president.

“The era of innovation has begun and, in this era, history is written with a pen and not with blood,” wrote Mockus in a commentary published recently by El Tiempo. The sometimes unconventional leader has made transparency and education central to his campaign. Yet, given the continued popularity of Uribe, Mockus and many of the candidates in the race have strayed from criticizing the current administration’s policies.

Uribe’s high approval rating, in turn, could assist Santos. As the candidate for the Social National Unity Party—known more commonly as the Partido de La U, or the U Party—Santos is the self-described successor to the current president. An economist who also served as finance minister during the administration of Andres Pastraña, he is more well-known for his recent turn as defense minister. During his tenure, he was credited with the dramatic rescue of former politician and longtime hostage of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Ingrid Betancourt. He also served in the cabinet role during an attack on a FARC camp in Ecuadorian territory in which guerilla leader Raúl Reyes was killed. While the strike signaled a strong blow to the guerilla group, the bombardment led to chilled relations with neighbors Ecuador and Venezuela.

A number of other candidates are in the running for Sunday. Noemí Sanín of the Conservative Party polls third with 8.8 percent support, Gustavo Petro of the Democratic Pole holds fourth place with 7.3 percent, and Germán Vargas Lleras (Radical Change) and Rafael Pardo (Liberal Party) are tied for fifth with 3.8 percent.

Learn more:

• AS/COA holds its annual Bogota conference on June 17, days before the expected second round of elections on June 20.
• Campaign website of Antanas Mockus.
• Campaign website of Juan Manuel Santos.
• Reuters Factbox offers tables of polls by various agencies and for both rounds of the elections.
• Invamer Gallup poll published at the close of the campaigns over the weekend.
• Votebien.com: Terra’s coverage of the elections, including interactive maps, profiles, and platforms.
• La Silla Vacía reports on candidate’s positons on a number of issues facing Colombia’s most vulnerable populations, with topics including the displaced on the border with Ecuador, homophobia, prisoners, and animal rights.