Colombia's Gustavo Petro Reaches Halfway Mark

Some legislative wins: Between his election and his inauguration, Petro expanded his congressional block beyond his leftist Historic Pact coalition. With traditional parties joining the government bloc, he had the support of 75 of 108 senators and 140 of 187 representatives, helping him usher two major pieces of legislation through Congress: a tax reform and a pension reform. 

His tax reform, passed in November 2022, looked to raise $4.2 billion annually of additional revenue. Considered an early win for Petro’s government, the reform raised taxes on the wealthiest, among other measures. Tax increases on extractive businesses were passed as part of the reform but struck down in court. Revenue gains from the reform have been undercut by problems with tax collection and, in December 2023, Petro said he wants to reform the reform.

The pension reform, meanwhile, passed in June 2024. That reform gives the government oversight over 70 percent of pension contributions and subsidizes payments for the lowest income workers. It also lowers contribution requirements for mothers and those near retirement age. 

Environmental priorities: With environmental protection a priority for his presidency, Petro has made some progress, including securing private-sector commitments toward an energy transition and signing the Escazú Agreement codifying environmental rights. 

Deforestation reached record lows in 2023, falling 36 percent from the prior year. The decline, per the government, was due to financial incentives for farmers and ceasefires with paramilitary groups that perform illegal logging. 

However, Petro reduced the budget for environmental agencies by 15 percent in 2023.

Progress on peace: Petro, once part of the 19th of April Movement, or M-19, guerrilla group, made advancing Colombia’s efforts to demilitarize armed groups a central campaign promise. His plan, known as Total Peace, won congressional approval in August 2022 and centers around brokering ceasefires with the guerrilla groups who rejected the 2016 Peace Accords. 

In December 2022, Petro announced ceasefires with five paramilitary groups, though without their agreement. Five months later, the government revoked three of those ceasefires, including with the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Clan del Golfo, the country’s largest crime syndicate. 

In June 2023, after three rounds of negotiations, the ELN and the government agreed to a new ceasefire based on a timetable of demilitarization and civic integration. The group agreed to stop offensive fire at Colombia’s military but not to end kidnappings. 

After going into effect in August 2023, the agreement almost broke down in October when the ELN kidnapped the parents of a soccer star. However, the ceasefire was extended another six months in August with new guarantees that the ELN would stop recruiting minors and that the government would help fund humanitarian aid and educational programs. That ceasefire expired on August 3, 2024. Efforts to establish similar truces with other groups—like the Estado Mayor Central and the Clan de Golfo have not borne fruit. 

Outside of the ceasefire strategy, Petro has pushed policies to help transition coca farmers to legal crops, like coffee or cocoa, though coca cultivation has increased to historic levels. In December 2023, the Senate rejected Petro’s attempts to legalize marijuana, part of his larger pledge to transform the paradigm of the drug war. He’s also facilitated the transfer of thousands of hectares of land from the government to victims of violence for agricultural purposes. 

Still, the number of Colombians who say they are affected by conflict rose by 14 percent from the first half of 2023 to the same period in 2024.

International profile: In the second month of his presidency, Petro delivered remarks at the opening debate of the UN General Assembly, where he called for an end to the war on drugs and action on climate change, setting an intention to be a global voice for the left. 

Since then, he’s joined ideologically similar leaders, such as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on foreign policy issues. For example, in September 2022, the two proposed an unsuccessful peace plan between Ukraine and Russia.  

More recently, following international cries of fraud in Venezuela’s July 2024 elections, Petro called for a full release of detailed vote counts, although he did not reject the electoral agency’s declaration that Nicolás Maduro had won the presidential vote. In addition, Colombia abstained from voting in an OAS resolution demanding the release of verifiable results. The proposed resolution fell short by one vote to pass. On August 1, Petro released a joint statement with the governments of Brazil and Mexico, supporting calls for an “impartial verification of the results.” Their statement also urged social and political groups in Venezuela to act cautiously in order “to avoid the escalation of violent episodes.” Petro normalized relations with Caracas shortly after taking office. 

Petro has been a vocal supporter of Palestine. In May 2024, he announced that Colombia was breaking off diplomatic relations with Israel, becoming the second country in the region to do so amid the Middle East conflict. Colombia has relied on Israeli military equipment, and Israel had threatened to suspend security exports to the country after Petro failed to reject Hamas’ October 2023 attacks. Following a bilateral battle of words over Israel’s bombings in Gaza, Colombia’s defense ministry indicated it would diversify weapons purchases. 

Signature reforms stalled: Even if Petro got through tax and pension reforms, other reforms on health, labor, and education have stalled and even sparked mass protests in February 2024. Amid these struggles, Petro has twice made major reshuffles to his cabinet in a bid to reinvigorate his government. In April 2023, he replaced seven ministers, including his finance chief. Then, in July 2024, he swapped out the heads of four ministries. 

Congress shelved Petro’s health reform in April 2024 after 14 months of debate. The reform aimed to strip power from insurers, expand access to healthcare, and grant the state wider control of healthcare funds and services. Petro then used executive powers to push changes in the healthcare system. such as replacing the executive board of the country’s two largest private health insurers with a government entity.  

Petro’s education reform faced similar legislative hurdles, stalling in June 2024 despite achieving consensus across parties in earlier debates. Thousands of educators who opposed the bill went on strike in protest of provisions that introduced teacher evaluations and made future strikes harder. 

In June 2024, a committee approved a version of a bill that increases holiday pay, discourages employers from offering temporary contracts, and alters night shift hours. Provisions to strengthen union and strike rights were not approved. That bill will go to the floor for consideration in the new legislative term that started on July 20. 

A potential constituent assembly: In his 2018 presidential campaign, Petro hoisted up two slabs of marble that, among 11 other commandments, read: “I will not convene a constituent assembly.” Six years later, in March 2024, Petro announced his intention to convene one.

“If the institutions that we have in Colombia today are not capable of living up to the social reforms that the people, through their vote, decreed ... then Colombia must go to a national constituent assembly,” he said in a speech in Cali.

A constituent assembly would allow for the reformation of the country’s constitution. Such a body hasn’t been convened since 1991. Petro has announced six focuses of a potential assembly: implementation of the peace accords, guarantees of basic living standards, judicial reforms, agrarian reform, action on climate change, and the end of violence.

For Petro to move forward, he would need Congress to pass a law that defines the main aspects of the constituent assembly, such as its size and the topics it will cover. That referendum would need approval from a third of Colombians to pass. Petro has denied claims that he will use such an assembly to allow reelection or extend his term.