Explainer: Ecuador's 2025 Elections

Why are Ecuadorans returning to the polls so soon? Although a full electoral term lasts four years in Ecuador, in May of 2023, then-President Lasso, invoked a constitutional tool known as muerte cruzada ("crossed death") to dissolve the National Assembly and avoid impending impeachment proceedings. 

This triggered snap elections for both the presidency and the legislature, though only to serve the remaining 18 months of the 2021–2025 electoral term. This was the first and only time in the country's history that this constitutional mechanism, around since 2008, has been employed.

In this year's election, along with a president and vice president, voters will select all members of a newly expanded 151-seat National Assembly. González's RC currently occupies one-third of the seats in the legislature while Noboa's National Democratic Action (ADN) has about one-tenth.

Approximately 13.8 million Ecuadorans are eligible to vote in these elections. Voting is obligatory for all citizens between the ages of 18 and 64. It is optional for 16 to 17-year-olds and those 65 and older, as well as people with disabilities and Ecuadorans abroad, who can vote at their nearest consulate. Voter turnout in legislative and presidential elections has ranged between 80 and 83 percent since 2013. Four-year terms for all elected officials will begin in will begin in May 2025.

Polling shows that the Ecuadoran electorate continues to be plagued by insecurity, concerns about the electricity supply, and worries about unemployment. 

In a January poll, around 35 percent of respondents said that crime was the country's biggest problem. Ecuador has seen an uptick in its homicide rate over the last five years as local criminal groups play an increasingly active role in the hemisphere's illicit drug trade. In 2018, the murder rate was 5.8 per 100,000 citizens; it peaked at 46.2 in 2023, before decreasing to 38.8 in 2024.

In January 2024, following a wave of violence brought to stark attention by an armed attack on a live TV news broadcast, Noboa declared an "internal armed conflict" against organized crime.The order amplified the military presence in prisons and on streets around the country. Despite an immediate decline in murders, monthly figures showed an upward trend in the second half of 2024. Additionally, the military's killing of four boys in December sparked protests over human rights concerns about the armed forces' role in Noboa's policies.

Regular and prolonged blackouts in late 2024 called into question the sustainability of Ecuador's electricity matrix, 70 percent of which is hydro-powered. When an intense drought hit the region drying up the country's rivers, the government implemented daily cuts of up to 14 hours to manage supply. This affected daily life and forced the closure of businesses and schools, igniting demonstrations. In the last quarter of 2024, more than a fifth of the population considered the energy crisis to be the country's main problem, second only to insecurity, according to pollster Comunicaliza. 

The cuts were suspended on December 20, which Noboa credited to more rainfall and his administration's efforts to increase both thermal and hydro-electric generation. Colombia also resumed energy exports to Ecuador in November. However, experts have indicated that more long-term solutions are needed to avoid future blackouts.

The unemployment rate in November 2024 was 3.7 percent, but a lack of opportunities for youth and a dearth of stable jobs continue to worry voters. Over 70 percent of unemployed persons are under 35 years of age. Around a third of workers are not in full-time jobs or in positions that guarantee at least the minimum salary.

There are 16 hopefuls vying for the presidency, but voter intention polls signal two clear frontrunners: the incumbent President Daniel Noboa and former Assemblywoman Luisa González. If these two progress to April's runoff, it would be a repeat of the 2023 presidential contest when Noboa emerged victorious with 52 percent of the vote to González's 48 percent.

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Noboa, the son of Ecuador's wealthiest man and a former assemblywoman, casts his political identity as a counter to the “old Ecuador.” Noboa's political journey began in 2021, when he was elected to the National Assembly to represent the coastal province of Santa Elena. When snap elections were called in 2023, he formed the ADN party to support his presidential run. Having registered below 5 percent in most voter intention polls prior to the first round, he surprised observers by achieving 23.5 percent of the vote to move on to the second round. His victory in the runoff at 35 years old made him the youngest president in Ecuador's history. For most of his term, Noboa has maintained an approval rating of over 50 percent.

Noboa's platform focuses on fighting organized crime, increasing energy generation capacity, and expanding economic opportunities for young people. As president, he increased the military's role in combating organized crime, one of various security measures approved by Ecuadorans in an April 2024 referendum. He also began construction of a maximum security prison, one of the two he had promised in his 2023 campaign.

On the energy and economic front, three policies have provoked dips in Noboa's favorability rating: an increase in value added tax in April 2024; the removal of subsidies on gasoline in June; and the most stringent period of electricity blackouts in September and October. During January's presidential debate, he promised not to raise the cost of utilities.

After a series of public disputes with his vice president, Verónica Abad, Noboa will be joined on the 2025 ticket by María José Pinto, who previously helmed a government office tackling child nutrition. Noboa has blocked Abad from acting as president while he campaigns, as provided for in the Constitution. He has instead appointed Public Administration Secretary Cynthia Gellibert as "interim vice president," so she will serve as acting head of state for the duration of his campaign. The legality of this maneuver is currently before the Constitutional Court.

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Luisa González is a lawyer and former assemblywoman for the Manabí province who held various roles in the government of ex-President Correa including labor minister and general secretary of the presidency. González is viewed as Correa's protegée and is the candidate of his Citizen Revolution party. Correa remains self-exiled in Belgium to avoid imprisonment on corruption charges, which he maintains were politically motivated.

González's manifesto to “revive Ecuador” centers on reducing inequality, diversifying the energy matrix, and improving crime-fighting capabilities. In January's presidential debate, she also emphasized the need to combat corruption through better data gathering to trace illicit funds. González has stated a desire to attract private sector investment in renewable energies such as wind and solar to boost the electricity supply. Like Noboa, she has articulated plans for increasing police and military presence to fight crime and incorporating artificial intelligence tools to aid detection and analysis of crimes.

This is González's second run for president. If successful, she will be Ecuador’s first elected female president. Her running mate is Diego Borja, a former economy minister and president of the Central Bank. 

Although no other candidate polls above 3 percent in most voter intention polls, other hopefuls include former President of the National Assembly Henry Kronfle of the Social Christian Party and Leonidas Iza of the Pachakutik Plurinational Movement, a party linked to the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), an influential indigenous rights association of which Iza is president. Jan Topic, a businessman and self-branded "outsider" who placed fourth in the first round of 2023's election with 15 percent of the vote, was disqualified from this year’s contest due to alleged business ties with the state.