Guatemala Election Update: The Road ahead for Pérez Molina

Otto Pérez Molina, a retired general, defeated Congressman Manuel Baldizón in the second round of Guatemala’s presidential election on November 6. Pérez Molina, of the Patriotic Party (PP), garnered 53.74 percent of the vote; Baldizón, a wealthy businessman representing the Renewed Democratic Freedom (Líder) party, won 46.26 percent. In 2007, Pérez Molina lost to current President Álvaro Colom in the second round of elections and, in keeping with a pattern dating back to 1986, Guatemalans elected the loser of the previous presidential vote into power. Voter turnout was just above 60 percent—slightly lower than in the first round, which brought 69 percent of Guatemalans to the polls. While Baldizón campaigned on a diverse number of issues, ranging from social programs to qualifying Guatemala for the World Cup, the crux of Pérez Molina’s campaign focused on a mano dura (iron fist) approach to combating the high levels of violence plaguing Guatemala.

Rocky Elections End with Peaceful Victory

Accusations of vote buying, disenfranchisement, and violence sparked concerns during the election cycle. During the second round, there were reports of vote buying on behalf of both candidates, illegal last-minute campaign advertising, and insufficient transportation for rural voters to arrive at the polls. Forty-three people died in election-related violence over the course of the presidential campaigns. After armed men burned ballots in several provinces in the first round, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) removed some polling stations to avoid violence during the second round, which may have disenfranchised rural voters. Also, some observers worried over problems with name spellings on ID cards that may have disqualified scores of indigenous voters. Campaign finance was also an issue. During the first round of elections, both candidates spent more than the legal amount—the PP spent $9.5 million and Líder spent $6.8 million—and the TSE forbade them from campaigning in the second round.

But the elections also offered signs of progress. In a country with low female participation in government, the election marked a first: Congresswoman Roxana Baldetti will be the first female vice president when she takes office in January. There was also high female voter turnout: 3.7 million women registered to vote, the first time that women accounted for more than half of registered voters. The OAS congratulated authorities on a smoother, more peaceful second round of voting, noting timely and efficient polling procedures.

The Path ahead for Guatemala under Pérez Molina

Pérez Molina’s victory represents a landmark moment in Guatemala’s young democracy, given that voters chose, for the first time since the country’s return to democracy, a candidate who served as a senior military leader during the country’s brutal 36-year civil war. Although human rights groups have raised concerns that abuses occurred under Pérez Molina’s watch, the president-elect has never been indicted. Nor has he shied away from taking a firm security stance. During his victory speech, he promised to focus at least 60 percent of his four-year term to improving security.

When he takes office on January 14 next year, Pérez Molina may already have a leg up. Despite ongoing coverage depicting a deteriorating public safety scenario, Guatemala’s homicide rate is experiencing its lowest levels in seven years. Still, the murder rate remains one of the world’s highest, hovering at around 40 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The Guatemalan electorate appeared to be looking for more to stop the bloodshed as concerns grow over signs of increased Zeta gang operations in Guatemala’s northern Péten region, along with long-time criminal activities carried out by street gangs such as M-18 and the Mara Salvatrucha. With that in mind, Pérez Molina put security at the top of his campaign agenda, pledging to add 10,000 police and to cut the homicide rate in half by midway through his presidential tenure. Within days of his electoral victory, he announced a national and regional strategy to combat narcotrafficking.

Security is not the only challenge facing the Pérez Molina administration. Over 50 percent of the population lives in poverty, and those rates run higher in rural areas—where the president-elect’s political rival Baldizón garnered greater support. Still, given the PP’s legislative wins in the September 11 election, Pérez Molina may have a strong mandate to carry out campaign proposals. The PP won the largest portion of congressional seats, snagging 56 of 158 spots to eclipse most other parties, while Baldizon’s Líder party won just 14. Still, Colom’s governing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party formed a short-lived alliance with the Grand National Alliance (GANA) that fell apart after the election, but led the two parties, historically considered the country’s largest, to win 48 seats. UNE and GANA’s decision to throw support behind Baldizón during the runoff could spell congressional roadblocks for the PP. Sandra Torres—Colom’s ex-wife, the former first lady, and an UNE party leader—promised to monitor and defend ongoing funding for social programs.

Status of the CICIG: A Fragile Struggle against Impunity

Impunity is another challenge Pérez Molina will have to face. The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) is a UN organization that aims to investigate crimes and bring offenders to justice; to bolster institutions, including the police and courts; and help reform an ineffectual criminal justice system. The commission began operating in September 2007, and though its mandate was renewed in January, Pérez Molina will have to decide whether to again renew its mandate in September 2013. Its main targets are paramilitary groups of soldiers and police working with drug traffickers, but the CICIG also tries to convict corrupt high-level government officials. Thus far, the CICIG achieved five convictions out of six major cases, though a Guatemalan court dismissed an embezzlement case against former President Alfonso Portillo earlier this year. According to a May 2011 Crisis Group report, the CICIG’s successes also include the creation of a Special Prosecutor’s Office, several legal reforms, new standards for electing Supreme Court judges, and supporting a witness protection program.

But one of the organization’s most visible achievements was the removal and arrest of several corrupt police chiefs, as well as the dismissal of an attorney general, ten prosecutors, military officers, judges,  and over 2,000 police officers. The new attorney general, Claudia Paz y Paz, proved effective in this area: she brought a number of high-profile arrests this summer. The head of the CICIG, Francisco Dall’Anese, described her as “a very honest woman [who] has done an extraordinary job.” Pérez Molina pledged to keep Paz y Paz on when he begins his administration, however, some fear he will replace her and hamper her progress.

After four years in operation, the CICIG remains controversial: it costs $20 million a year to operate in one of Latin America’s most impoverished countries. Though it receives its budget from donations from participating UN nations, it asked for more funding from Guatemala’s congress in October. The organization is also fighting to change a system deeply entrenched by corruption, with limited support from the country’s elites. Ultimately, the CICIG’s continued success depends on Pérez Molina’s support, and it could face challenges if he decides to protect members of the military or to impede prosecution of high-level officials.