Juan Manuel Santos Wins Colombian Presidency

As anticipated, former Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos won Colombia's second-round presidential vote by an overwhelming majority on June 20. With almost the entirety of votes counted, Santos of the Partido de la U (or U Party), pulled in 69 percent of the vote compared to the 27 percent garnered by his rival, former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus. As a former cabinet member for popular president, Álvaro Uribe, Santos represented safe continuity for voters. In his concession speech, Mockus congratulated Santos while celebrating the growth of the Green Party that he represented during the campaign. The victor celebrated his win by saying: "Colombians voted to support unity" and called the win a "triumph" for Uribe as well, saying voters supported "a government program that continues and develops the advances of his administration."  Santos will take the reins of the presidency from Uribe on August 7.

Of Colombia's 30 million registered voters, more than 13.3 million voters turned out on a day marked by rains and the temptation to watch the World Cup instead of heading to the ballot box. The deaths of seven police and three soldiers in separate, guerilla-related incidents marred voting day, though voting was largely peaceful. the percentage of blank votes amounted to less than 3.5 percent.

Just as in the first round, polls underestimated Santos' support, though not to such a large degree as in the first elections. During the May 30 elections, Santos won more than double the votes of his top contender, pulling in 46.6 percent compared to Mockus’ 21.5. The Green Party candidate won the majority of ballots in just one of 32 departments. Yet polls taken a week before that election forecast a different outcome, placing the two contenders in a dead heat and predicting that Mockus could win in the second round. Instead, Santos came within a few percentage points of avoiding the June 20 runoff. Mockus saw his support decrease since then.

Mockus rose as a top contender on what became known as the ola verde (green tide), propelled by social media and supporters weary from Uribe administration scandals ranging from wiretapping to human rights concerns. “History is written with a pen and not with blood,” wrote Mockus while campaigning, stressing transparency, education, and innovation as central to his campaign. When the May 30 vote came around, “the tide was orange” rather than green, reported La Silla Vacía, alluding to the color that represents Santos’ U Party.

Santos’ role as defense minister during the Uribe administration played a crucial role in his strength as a candidate. The great-nephew of a Colombian president, he was credited with the dramatic rescue of former political and longtime hostage of the Revolutionary Armed Forced of Colombia (FARC) Ingrid Betancourt. Santos’ candidacy was buoyed by improved public security conditions under the Uribe administration. Official figures report that FARC membership dropped by nearly half since 2001—from 16,000 to 8,500. The rescue of four more hostages during the week before the election served as reminder of the damage done to the guerilla group during the Uribe administration, including under Santos’ watch. The hostages, all former military and police officers, spent 12 years in captivity. The Christian Science Monitor’s Bogota correspondent Sibylla Brodzinsky called the rescue “a serious blow” to the FARC that would also give “Santos a boost as the frontrunner." Santos also won the backing of other parties supportive of Uribe, as well as German Vargas Lleras, who finished third in the first round.

An economist and journalist by training, Santos also served as a minister in the cabinets of Presidents Cesar Gaviria and Andres Pastrana and is the cousin of the current vice president. In a profile, Semana calls Santos “pragmatic” and “a good manager” who “has spent years preparing himself to be president.” He suggested after the May 30 elections that Mockus’ proposal to raise taxes led to his rival’s downfall at the voting booth. The president-elect has pledged to bring informal workers into the formal economy and close the budget gap. A new article in Dinero explores Santos’ economic proposal and suggests that tax and labor market reforms will be necessary for financial stability and job creation.

Learn more:

• AS/COA held its annual conference in Bogota on June 17.
• Read an AS/COA analysis of the first round of elections.
• Website of Colombia’s main electoral agency.
• Semana offers election analysis, including reasons behind Mockus' loss and the challenges facing President-elect Santos.
• La Silla Vacía analyzes the two leaders in an article that likens Mockus to a leader and Santos to a manager.
• Terra’s votebien asked the candidates 14 questions related to top election issues, ranging from foreign relations to human rights to health and education. Access their answers.