LatAm in Focus: From Fertilizers to Fuel—What the Ukraine Crisis Means for Latin America

Even before the crisis, Brazil was struggling to secure sufficient fertilizer, making it an agenda item when President Jair Bolsonaro met with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a February visit to Moscow days before the invasion. It turns out Bolsonaro may have not secured what he needed to on the trip, given that the conflict has only made it harder for Brazil to acquire the fertilizer it needs to power its substantial agriculture sector, says Pearson. She explains, “If farmers are paying more for fertilizer, if food prices are going up in Brazil, that affects families.”

Even before this crisis, those families were already struggling with the high price of consumer goods, inflation, and the residual economic effects of the pandemic. That leads to a political impact as well, says Pearson, as Brazil approaches the October general elections. “Brazilians are very practical when they vote. They don’t really care about the left. They don’t care about the right. They don’t care about political parties. They care about the price of beans.”

Can Brazil and other Latin American countries find a way to take advantage of current gaps in the market? Pearson is skeptical. “In theory, Brazil could be stepping up producing more wheat, which is something that the Ukraine produces. But again, then it’s got a problem with fertilizers. So, there’s always a ‘but’ lurking around the corner.” With oil, too, Pearson believes Latin America will struggle to meet market needs and that could produce devastating impacts. “If the cost of oil goes up, then the cost of rent goes up and then people get higher wages and then spiraling out of control. That's the fear.”

Luisa Leme produced this episode.

The music in this episode is “Menino das Laranjas" performed by Jamile Staevie and Saul Cosme. Check out more performances at musicoftheamericas.org.

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