A voting booth in Brazil

A voting booth in Brazil. (AP)

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LatAm in Focus: What Do Brazil's Municipal Elections Say About Polarization in the Region?

By Luisa Leme

Political analyst Thomas Traumann examines gains by the opposition, as well as Lula's scenario for 2026 amid deep political divides.

On October 6, 155 million Brazilians in over 5,500 cities voted for mayors and town council members. Analysts have pointed to the fact that centrist parties gained many local seats to argue that the ideological polarization seen at national-level politics was not as prevalent in these municipal elections. 

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Thomas Traumann
Thomas Traumann

“I think it's wishful thinking,” said Thomas Traumann, a journalist, political consultant, and co-author of the book Biografia do Abismo (“Biography of the Abyss”), which examines polarization in Brazil. In Sao Paulo, “the mayor debates were so violent that one of the candidates threw a chair on the other one … If this is not polarization, I don't know what is.” 

Speaking with AS/COA’s Luisa Leme, Traumann explained the municipal elections results followed a familiar pattern for the left, dependent on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and pulled together by hardline Workers’ Party supporters, progressives, and the poor traditionally in Brazil’s North-East. For the opposition, however, this cycle showed strength, said Traumann. “No doubt that opposition won the election. But the point is the opposition is split, because the traditional right is not strong enough to lead the radical right that is now represented by Pablo Marçal.” The true winner, Traumann pointed out, was Congress and parties known as the Centrão.

With centrist candidates finding it hard to break through in big cities and given the popularity of firebrand right-wing mayoral candidate Pablo Marçal—who was the one hit with a chair after taunting one of his opponents on a debate stage—Traumann predicted there would be “an insurgent, rogue candidate” who disrupts the 2026 presidential elections with 10 to 15 percent of support.

Looking ahead two years, Lula is preparing for what will likely be his last presidential run. Traumann noted that the president has seemed less willing during his third term to reach out to the center for cooperation. “I think this will be extremely important for the next two years. And not only for Lula, but also for the survival of the Workers’ Party once Lula is retired.” 

Latin America in Focus Podcast

Subscribe to Latin America in Focus, AS/COA's podcast focusing on the latest trends in politics, economics, and culture throughout the Americas.

This podcast was produced by Luisa Leme, our host and Executive Producer, and Associate Producers Fabrizio Ricalde and Khalea Robertson. 

This is the ninth episode in our 2024 election series. Prior episodes covered a controversial plebiscite in Uruguay’s upcoming election, electoral trends in the region, what comes next for Mexico after Claudia Sheinbaum’s electoral win, how Latin America figures into the Trump-Biden battle, the Dominican Republic’s unique political culture, the economic agenda for Panama’s new president, the youth vote in Mexico, and Nayib Bukele’s global reach.  

Find this content and more electoral insight in this year's 2024 Election Guide at: www.as-coa.org/2024 

The music in this podcast is performed by Tiganá Santana for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at: musicoftheamericas.org

Send us feedback at: latamfocus@as-coa.org 

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.

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