LatAm in Focus: What Do Brazil's Municipal Elections Say About Polarization in the Region?

Speaking with AS/COA’s Luisa Leme, Traumann explained the municipal elections results followed a familiar pattern for the left, spearheaded and dependent on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and pulled together by hardline Workers’ Party supporters, progressives, and the poor traditionally in Brazil’s North-East. For the opposition, however, this cycle showed strength, said Traumann. “No doubt that opposition won the election. But the point is the opposition is split, because the traditional right is not strong enough to lead the radical right that is now represented by Pablo Marçal.” The true winner, Traumann pointed out, was Congress and parties known as the Centrão.

With centrist candidates finding it hard to break through in big cities and given the popularity of firebrand right-wing mayoral candidate Pablo Marçal—who was the one hit with a chair after taunting one of his opponents on a debate stage—Traumann predicted there would be “an insurgent, rogue candidate” who disrupts the 2026 presidential elections with 10 to 15 percent of support.

Looking ahead two years, Lula is preparing for what will likely be his last presidential run. Traumann noted that the president has seemed less willing during his third term to reach out to the center for cooperation. “I think this will be extremely important for the next two years. And not only for Lula, but also for the survival of the Workers’ Party once Lula is retired.” 

This podcast was produced by Luisa Leme, our host and Executive Producer, and Associate Producers Fabrizio Ricalde and Khalea Robertson. 

This is the ninth episode in our 2024 election series. Prior episodes covered a controversial plebiscite in Uruguay’s upcoming election, electoral trends in the region, what comes next for Mexico after Claudia Sheinbaum’s electoral win, how Latin America figures into the Trump-Biden battle, the Dominican Republic’s unique political culture, the economic agenda for Panama’s new president, the youth vote in Mexico, and Nayib Bukele’s global reach.  

Find this content and more electoral insight in this year's 2024 Election Guide at: www.as-coa.org/2024 

The music in this podcast is performed by Tiganá Santana for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at: musicoftheamericas.org

Send us feedback at: latamfocus@as-coa.org 

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.