Lula's Tehran Trip

Updated May 18 - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Iran over the weekend, seeking a diplomatic solution to the controversy over Tehran’s nuclear program. Along with Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Lula met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to forge a pact that would see Tehran send half of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey. In exhange, Iran would receive nuclear fuel rods for a medical reseach reactor. “This is the first time that Iran compromises in writing to exchange fuel,” said Brazi's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim after the deal. “In our view, the agreement eliminates any ground for sanctions against Iran.” The declaration marks a milestone in that two emerging powers—Brazil and Turkey—played a major role. But questions remain about the agreement, including signals that Iran will continue producing highly enriched uranium and that it could still step out of the deal.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad previously met with Lula in November 2009 during a visit to Brazil, where the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and signed 13 cooperation agreements in areas including commerce, technology, agriculture, trade, education, and the lifting of visa requirements. Lula has supported Tehran's plans to enrich uranium if used for peaceful purposes and opposed new sanctions on Iran.

Lula’s resistance to U.S. pressure to move forward with sanctions on Iran has been viewed as a limit on Washington’s influence on some countries in the region to support its policies while raising questions over Brazil’s willing role as a mediator between the West and Iran. “A lot of people in Washington are asking themselves if Brazil is a true partner of the U.S. or an emerging rival,” said COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth in a March Financial Times interview about Brazil-Iran ties. Lula also faces domestic criticism, as reflected in protests and condemnations by political opponents and the media following Ahmadinejad’s 2009 visit to Brazil. Foreign policy analysts in Brazil have viewed Lula’s gestures to Iran as a sign of foreign policy guided by “the constant search for spotlight,” writes Paulo Sotero in Foreign Policy. “As his presidential term comes to an end, Lula's move might be more about building a legacy on the world stage than much of anything else. And it may well backfire.” Furthermore, in March, senators from the opposition parties announced they would no longer support officials nominated by the government to represent Brazil’s foreign policy because of “the government’s dialogues with regimes of exception, such as Cuba and Iran.”

The spate of criticism against Lula’s Iran policy prompts a question: Why is Lula getting involved in negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program? Sean Goforth writes in a World Politics Review article that Brazil “is pursuing an agenda of ‘autonomy through diversification,’ which refers to autonomy from the U.S. by diversifying economic and political ties.” Brazil currently holds a rotating seat on the UN Security Council and seeks to expand its influence in the global arena. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Transmission blog writes that Lula could also be laying the groundwork to make a bid to become UN secretary general.

Some view Lula’s visit to Iran as an opportunity to reach a breakthrough in the stalemate between the Iranian leadership and major Western powers, and to do something for “the greater good.” Lula—recently named one of Time’s most influential people in the world—could help secure the release of the three American hikers who were detained and imprisoned in Iran in July 2009, suggests Matthew Aho in an Americas Quarterly blog post. “What better way to very publicly demonstrate Lula's growing clout among world leaders than to free three prisoners whose release the U.S. government has been seeking for almost a year?” he asks.

Ahead of the Brazilian president's trip, a U.S. State Department official told Reuters, “I think we would view the Lula visit as perhaps the last big shot at engagement” with Iran over its nuclear plan. Whether that last shot hit the mark remains to be seen. During a White House press conference, spokesman Robert Gibbs said the portion of Iran's low-enriched uranium it agreed to ship to Turkey is less than what it agreed to in October. "And understand that even though they agreed to this last October, it never came to pass because they changed their mind," he added. "So that’s why I say the words and the deeds of the leadership in Iran have rarely coincided."

Learn more:

• "Lula Takes Tehran," Eric Farnsworth, The Huffington Post, May 16.
• Nuclear fuel declaration by Iran, Turkey, and Brazil.
• State Department's March 17 Daily Press Briefing, including comments about the declaration.
• AQ Hard Talk: "Can Brazil play a significant role in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions?" Spring 2010
• AS/COA news analysis on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s November 2009 visit to Brazil.
  
• Information about the G15 countries that will meet for a summit in Tehran on May 17.
• CFR.org backgrounder on Iran's nuclear program.
• Reuters Factbox on existing sanctions on Iran stemming from its nuclear program.
• Presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran website.
• Presidency of Brazil website.