New Opportunity in U.S.-Mexico Affairs

U.S. relations with Mexico are about to take another turn, and with some careful nurturing on both sides of the border, the prospects for building a mature, vibrant bilateral relationship have not been better in years. But the window is small, and the time to do so is now.

For too long, U.S. relations with our southern neighbor have been defined by one issue at a time. In the 1980s, the debt crisis. In the 1990s, first NAFTA then drugs. Since 2001, immigration. And each time, with the exception of a brief period of time between the 2000 election of Presidents George W. Bush and Vicente Fox and Sept. 11, the relationship has been defined primarily by the "negative" agenda, rather than a positive agenda under which both nations seek actively to build a more cooperative relationship. The Nov. 7 U.S. election and the July 2006 election of Felipe Calderon, who will be inaugurated as Mexico's new president on Friday, offer a significant opportunity to build the relationship in broader terms. It is an opportunity that the incoming Calderon government has already taken several concrete steps to seize. If the United States reciprocates, the long-term results may well be profound.

The United States and Mexico are bound by geography and history. The United States is the world's most developed nation, but Mexico remains a developing nation. NAFTA has increased trade between the two nations and Canada, creating jobs and new investment, but the wealth gap remains significant, serving as the primary draw for Mexican and other Latin American migrants to the United States. These migrants seek the sometimes-dangerous and illegal passage to the U.S. out of economic desperation.

The continuing, disorderly flows of illegal migrants are disruptive, and have unsurprisingly led to a backlash in the United States. Working together, both nations understand they must moderate and manage this flow better, but until Mexico begins to generate the kinds of good jobs that will keep its people at home, the issue will remain at the forefront of the relationship. Nonetheless, given the defeat of several of the most outspoken "enforcement alone" members of Congress coupled with the new Democratic majorities, there may well be an opportunity to revisit this issue and forge a bipartisan compromise that improves enforcement while also creating a guest-worker program.

For its part, the incoming government in Mexico seems to recognize that the previous approach to migration has been a mistake and seeks to make work on a broader agenda that explicitly recognizes Mexico's obligations within the NAFTA system to do a better job creating jobs and wealth in Mexico. This would be a real step forward. The incoming government has explicitly supported both the Plan Puebla Panama economic integration project with Central America, and has also recommitted Mexico to the commercially important Security and Prosperity Partnership with Canada and the United States. At some point, the opening of the energy sector to foreign investment must also be addressed.

More broadly, President-elect Calderon understands Mexico's broader role in the hemisphere, as shown by the fact that his first international travel after the election was to Latin America, not the United States, Canada or Europe. This is a recognition that Mexico's standing within the region has suffered even as others such as Brazil and Venezuela seek to dominate the regional dialogue.

At this point, the hemisphere is divided. The regional trade agenda has essentially run aground, even as Mexico and other U.S. trade partners continue to face unprecedented economic challenges from Asia, China and India in particular. But Mexico and others in the hemisphere understand their only hope to succeed in the global environment is through increased trade and investment coupled with domestic reforms to improve education, social mobility and the rule of law. The United States also needs regional allies who are willing to take the lead on issues like trade where U.S. leadership has been questioned. Mexico has standing on trade and investment that goes well beyond the Americas, an important consideration as Washington evaluates, for example, what to do about the languishing Doha discussions and how to handle existing trade arrangements between partners in the Americas and Asia. Mexico is ready to play an important role between North and South America, and beyond. Friends like this are not always easy to find.

The change in the Mexican government doesn't mean that the relationship between the United States and Mexico will be smooth and uneventful in the future. Far from it.

Illegal narcotics will continue to be a corrupting influence on both sides of the border, given the U.S. appetite for illegal drugs and given that Mexico's geographic position and sometimes weak legal system make it a prime transit nation. And, given economic disparities, illegal immigration really cannot be "solved," only managed better. Unmet expectations and disappointments will continue to be the reality in both capitals. But Mexico's incoming administration and coming changes in Washington provide the opportunity to rethink the relationship.

We won't have many more such opportunities. The time to begin is now.