Opposites Attract: PAN and PRD Align

Three years ago, in the wake of Mexico's contentious presidential election, few would have predicted an alliance between the race's two rival parties. But the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) are considering just that as they face a resurgent Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). After sustaining losses in last year’s midterm election and with 12 governorships up for grabs this year, the two parties hope a union can undercut the PRI's gains ahead of the 2012 presidential vote. Yet voters might not buy the alliance between two teams with disparate ideologies.

More than 40 percent of Mexican voters head to the polls this year for a variety of political seats in 1,500 towns. The first vote takes place in the Yucatan in May, but a majority of elections occur in July. As a map produced by El Universal shows, the PRI currently governs in 20 states while the other two parties split the remaining 11 plus the federal district. During July 2009 midterm elections, the PRI capitalized on wavering support for the PAN and squabbling within the PRD to capture control of Mexico’s lower house. With the sting of those losses still fresh, the PAN and PRD plan to join forces for the gubernatorial elections in Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, and potentially Puebla.

“It would be a loveless marriage bound by a practical goal,” writes Ken Ellingwood of The Los Angeles Times. After the tight 2006 presidential election, many backers of PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) refused to recognize the victory of Felipe Calderón. AMLO continues to claim that he heads the “Legitimate Government of Mexico.” But the two parties could put aside differences on issues ranging from abortion to energy in an effort to stop the PRI—which held on to the Mexican presidency for over seven decades—from winning the 2012 presidential elections. Even if AMLO pulls his movement’s support from candidates involved in alliances, his representative in the PRD leadership Alejandro Encinas backs the possible partnerships, reports Under the Volcano blog.

Still, the voters may not go for the move to bust open the PRI’s grip. A recent survey by Excelsior found that 53 percent of respondents reject a PAN-PRD alliance while only 21 percent support the idea. Writing for the Americas Quarterly blog, Arjan Shahani asks: “Do the PAN and the PRD believe that Mexicans have forgotten a country under siege after the candidate from one of these parties would not accept the victory of the other one?”

Learn more:

• “Mexico’s PAN-PRD Alliance,” Arjan Sahani, AQ blog, January 28, 2010
• Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute calendar of upcoming elections with maps.
• Excelsior survey on the PAN-PRD alliance.
• El Universal breakdown of the number of voters by state and the positions up for grabs in this year's elections.
• Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars’ Mexico Institute report on 2009 midterm election results.