Poll Pressure: Venezuela's Legislative Vote

All 167 seats of Venezuela’s National Assembly will be up for grabs come September 26. Election day comes at a time when Venezuela has witnessed recent periods of electricity rationing, inflation wavering around 30 percent, and headline-grabbing violence in Caracas. Opposition parties look to capitalize on these woes and reclaim some portion of the legislature. In the 2005 legislative election, opposition parties withdrew and boycotted in protest of what they called unfair election practices. Now, various polls show significant support for opposition candidates, meaning President Hugo Chávez’s United Socialist Party (PSUV) faces the possibility of losing the control of the unicameral assembly, where it holds 138 seats. Still, redrawn voting districts could weaken the opposition’s chances of gaining a foothold.

Several factors indicate that this will be a hotly contested election, not only at the ballot box but also after the vote counts. As the Hemispheric Brief points out, a recent Keller & Associates poll found that 77 percent of the electorate plans to participate on September 26. The same survey also found that the 20 million Venezuelans polled were almost evenly divided: 30 percent support chavistas, 33 percent remain neutral, and 33 percent oppose Chávez. These figures suggest that, after 11 years in power, Chávez may be losing his appeal—even in chavista strongholds. A June poll by Consultores 21 found that most Venezuelans see Chávez as placing personal benefit ahead of the country’s and that, were a presidential election held at that moment, Chávez would lose by 12 percent. Insecurity looms as a top election issue, given that Venezuela saw more civilian deaths from violence last year than did Iraq. A second matter is the country’s flagging economy, which Bloomberg reports is the last in Latin American still experiencing a recession. Opposition parties hope to convert Chávez supporters weary of crime, recession, and shortages.

With the election’s outcome unsure—and control over the ability to make constitutional reforms at stake—the issue of potential election fraud has drawn attention. Caracas Chronicles looks at election data from previous years and concludes that ballot stuffing, at least, is rather unlikely.

Attempting to address concerns of fraud, Venezuela’s National Electoral Counsel (CNE) carried out several inspections to guarantee the integrity of voting machinery. CNE invited international observers from the Americas and Europe, including the Spanish People’s Party, which recently confirmed it would participate. Chilean Senators, on the other hand, have been refused the right to act as observers during the election. Likewise, El Universal reports that OAS monitors will not be invited to play an observer role.

Despite efforts to maintain the fairness of the election, recent redistricting means that, even in the absence of fraud, opposition parties may struggle to gain a foothold. The three major opposition parties present in the National Assembly now hold a total of just 45 seats. Critics charge that the PSUV-dominated legislature has used gerrymandering to break up opposition-favoring districts into a more Chávez-friendly arrangement. Opposition parties may thus find it difficult to capture enough seats to break the PSUV’s more than two-thirds majority, even if voters strongly support opposition candidates. Several opposition parties reconciled political differences to form a coalition, Mesa de Unidad Democrática (MUD) in hopes of boosting their chances. Bloggings by boz breaks down the potential outcomes into five scenarios that include either side winning by small or large margins, as well as the effects if the losers choose to challenge the results.

In a piece for PODER Hispanic, AS/COA’s Eric Farnsworth considers the regional implications of the election. The electorate’s “decision will resonate across the hemisphere,” he writes. “A strong rebuke to the government’s current direction could well slow the march toward Bolivarian utopia, while a renewed mandate would encourage the government to continue, and in fact speed, its efforts to remake Venezuela, with all the hemispheric friction that implies.”

Learn more:

• Read a PODER Hispanic analysis of the pending Venezuelan, Brazilian, and U.S. elections by AS/COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth.
• El Universal features a voting district map with data from the past five years of elections.
• Venezuela's National Electoral Council’s official website.
• Venezuela's National Assembly website, with information about current representatives.
• Angus-Reid history of Venezuelan politics, including election trackers from 2005 and 2006.
• May Hinterlaces poll showing that 64 percent of Venezuelans hope to see Chávez step down in 2010, up from 61 percent in 2008.
• The Official Website of President Chávez’s PSUV party.