Poll Tracker: Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro defied poll expectations to take the top spot in Brazil’s first round vote on October 4. But he secured 47 percent of the vote, just shy of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Bolsonaro, the son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2023), faces incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2011, 2023–present), known as Lula, who captured 45 percent of the vote. Four years ago, Lula defeated the elder Bolsonaro in a second round to win his third presidential term.

Both candidates are making their final pitches in hopes of mobilizing their bases, winning over voters who backed unsuccessful first-round candidates, or persuading the 6 million who cast canceled ballots to change their minds. Another target? The 33.5 million Brazilians who didn’t show up the first time around.

Our poll tracking was initially published on February 11 and has since been updated. 

This was the poll tracker for the first-round vote.