Remarks: How the U.S. Election Affects Canada, Mexico, and Spain

The Impact of the U.S. Elections on Spain, Canada, and Mexico
(Cick here to access a summary of this event—en español)

Eric Farnsworth
Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas

Remarks to the Foro Elecciones EUA
Casa de las Americas, Madrid
Tuesday, December 9, 2008 *****As Delivered*****

Thank you very much. Ambassadors of Mexico and Canada to Spain [Jorge] Zermeno and [Malcolm] McKechnie, other Ambassadors and distinguished guests, I’m delighted to have the opportunity to return to Madrid and very pleased with the invitation to be here at this important and timely seminar. As the final speaker on the program, I’m not sure I have that much more to add from that already discussed by the previous speakers, each of whom made excellent presentations and I fully agreed with virtually everything that has already been said. But perhaps, being from Washington, I can at least add a different perspective to some of the issues we have already been discussing.

It is an honor to be on the same program with these speakers, including Ambassador Carlos Westendorp, whom I had the pleasure to observe personally as a strong, vital voice for Spain in Washington even during difficult days. And I want to thank Alicia Buenrostro whom I first met in Washington when I was at the White House and she was at the Embassy of Mexico. I always found her to be among the keenest observers of Washington—and Mexico, too—within the Latin American diplomatic community.

Washington is a bit crazy these days and frankly it’s good to have the opportunity to get away from the city for just a bit. In fact, now that the elections are over, the real fighting has just begun. It’s not between Democrats and Republicans, but rather among all the winners for key positions in the new administration!

So I am pleased to be with you here in Madrid to discuss the recent elections in my country and how they will impact relations with Mexico, Canada, and Spain going forward. In fact, in some ways relations will be impacted dramatically. At the same time, expectations for change are running well ahead of anyone’s ability to meet them, including the President-elect. So expectations must be managed, and we need to have a realistic understanding of what is possible, and what is likely. And that is what I want to talk with you about today.

I think in the first instance, in attempting to predict the future, we need to take the President-elect at his word. Earlier this year in Miami, then-candidate Obama laid out an agenda for the Americas in a speech to the Cuban-American community, and that speech remains his template for action. The President-elect spoke of several initiatives he would pursue in the Americas, including broader engagement with the people of the region. Comprehensive immigration reform. Energy and climate change. Personal security. Trade. And Cuba. Each of these impacts directly our policy toward Mexico and Canada, two nations which are our closest friends—as frustrating as that must be for them from time to time—and which will remain two of our closest friends. So let me, if you will, take a moment to discuss each of these in turn, and then say a word about the United States and Spain. I’ll finish with a brief comment about our Congress.

In the first instance, comprehensive immigration reform is back on the agenda. To quote the President-elect, “That means securing [the US] border and passing tough employer enforcement laws. It means bringing 12 million unauthorized immigrants out of the shadows. But it also means working with Mexico, Central America and others to support bottom up development to our south.” As one of the top issues on the Mexico government’s agenda, if not the very top, a strong, early, successful effort on immigration has the potential to fundamentally alter the US-Mexico relationship. At the same time, nothing is as complicated in the United States, or in Spain for that matter, as the politics surrounding immigration, and in a weak economy the popular desire for immigration reform may be even less. But it is an agenda item, and it will be considered.

Second, on energy and climate change, Canada is the top energy supplier to the United States; Mexico is third. You can’t credibly discuss US energy policy without reference to those two critically important nations. President-elect Obama has stated clearly that he will push for a new energy Partnership for the Americas. Such a partnership would focus on sustainable growth and clean energy. The time is right for such an approach. Ambassador McKechnie spoke of these matters effectively in his earlier comments. At the same time, Canada enjoys the largest proven oil reserves of any nation in the world after Saudi Arabia, thanks to its massive oil sands. But it is unclear at this point how the exploitation of such energy reserves will mesh with the imperatives of global climate change and support for clean energy. For its part, Mexico’s reserves are rapidly decreasing, and unless recent reforms are successful in generating major new exploration activity, Mexico will lose its status in US energy considerations.

I believe that the President-elect will also raise the profile of personal security, especially in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin, with continued support for the Merida Initiative. The new Administration will be fully supportive of Mexico’s efforts to crack down on the violence that plagues the nation, while tying support to benchmarks for drug seizures, corruption prosecutions, crime reduction, and kingpins busted. After many years and personal appeals from the top levels of the Mexican government, the United States will finally begin to do more, as well, to crack down on the unconscionable trade in guns, pre-cursor chemicals, and money laundering North of the border that fuels much of the security problems South of the border in Mexico.

Beyond that, trade is the big question, and the one that perhaps concerns Canadians and Mexicans more than any other, given their significant dependence on the US market for their own economic well-being. And vice versa, I might add. During the campaign, the President-elect and the newly-nominated Secretary of State both said they would renegotiate NAFTA, an agreement that has been in operation for some 15 years and proves its worth every day. Some have argued that this is campaign rhetoric, and indeed it may turn out to be, in part because Canada has said publicly that re-opening NAFTA would cause Ottawa to re-think the privileged position of the United States with reference to Canadian energy exports, and Mexico has indicated that re-opening NAFTA would require renegotiation of sensitive agriculture provisions, to say nothing of immigration.

Like a knitted sweater, NAFTA is a carefully sewn compromise—it’s not perfect, and it’s not a panacea, but once you start to pull on the loosest thread—a little labor here, a little environment there, a little energy here, a little immigration there, some agriculture and intellectual property and everything else—the entire sweater begins to unravel. And I would submit to you that nothing would redefine more quickly the US relationship with its North America partners. It’s hard to conceive that anyone attempting to build a stronger, more competitive North America really wants this, although NAFTA was designed to be a living document and numerous changes have already been made since its implementation, and others could be contemplated within the context of keeping the broader agreement intact. Nonetheless, the issue is out there. It is an issue that, by design or not, may well face the new Administration early in its term.

The final issue is Cuba. I think you’ll see from the new Administration a softening of Cuba policy, including visits, remittances, and exchanges, although the embargo, enshrined in US law, will remain for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless—and this impacts US relations with Canada, Mexico, and Spain, all of which see the Cuba issue differently than official Washington does—the Cuba filter will likely become less prominent in the conduct of our bilateral affairs.

In other words, our relations with Spain, for example, will likely be focused less and less on whether we agree with Spain’s Cuba policy, or, for that matter, on Iraq. In fact, I would see a higher interest from the new US Administration in forging a new relationship with the Zapatero government, moving beyond the deep freeze of the past several years. Contacts between the Zapatero government and the incoming administration have already been made at senior levels. And areas for collaboration abound, particularly if Spain is invited to join the G8, notably in forging a deeper partnership with us on Latin America.

No, we don’t always see eye to eye, and yes, we are sometimes commercial competitors in Latin America. But we also have broadly consistent interests there, and, working together, we can have a greater, more positive impact in areas such as human rights, the environment, investment climate issues, energy frameworks including alternative energy, and many other topics than either of us has been able to have working alone. So this is a promising area for collaboration and should be appropriately explored.

Finally, a word about the US Congress. Because, of course, the elections November 4 did not just elect a new President. They also increased the Democratic majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. And Congress is a completely independent institution. On all the topics just discussed—immigration, energy and climate change, funding and security assistance, trade, and Cuba—Congress will have a significant role in the endgame through legislation. The hard reality is that unless Congress also prioritizes these issues within the cacophony of competing Washington interests, they will be much more difficult to do, no matter who is in the White House. Progress is definitely possible. Change is here. But expectations are also quite high. And it’s going to take a long, committed, patient effort, working with Congress, to get there.

The English author Graham Greene—one of my favorites—once said that there are unique moments in time when the door opens and lets the future in. I believe we have reached such a moment. But it will take all of us pushing forward—together—to open the door and let the future in.