Summary - Comprehensive Immigration Reform: An Update

Speakers:

• Juan Manuel Benítez, Host & Executive Producer, Pura Política, NY1
• Muzaffar Chishti, Director, Migration Policy Institute Office at NYU Law
• Jason Marczak, Director of Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas (Moderator)

Summary

On May 14, AS/COA hosted a panel of experts to discuss the latest developments around immigration reform legislation. The conversation focused on the Senate Judiciary Committee’s markup of the bill and the timing of a floor vote, the forthcoming comprehensive House bill, and the timeline for passage through both chambers. Panelists analyzed the bill’s current content and looked at how it might be modified over the coming months.

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Bipartisan Support for a Reform Bill

Muzaffar Chishti of the Migration Policy Institute opened the conversation by highlighting the breadth of the Senate’s immigration bill. He emphasized that the strength of the bill comes from the fact that the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” senators worked together to transform points of compromise into legislative language accessible to the public. Juan Manuel Benítez of Pura Política lauded the transparent bipartisan process as an “example of how Washington should work.” He noted that it wasn’t only the Democrats and Republicans who cooperated, but the business and labor sectors as well. While both panelists praised the bill, they were cautiously optimistic about its survival in both chambers of Congress.

Overhauling the Immigration System

Although the legalization of the nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants serves as a driving force behind comprehensive immigration reform, Chishti asserted that in the future, legalization will look “like a footnote” in the bill. This is because the legislation fundamentally alters the immigration system. He elaborated on the three main pillars of the proposed bill: enforcement, legalization of the unauthorized, and visa reform. The biggest modifications to the bill, he argued, would revolve around the time frame for the pathway to citizenship, which currently stands at 13 years and five for Dreamers, eligible youth brought to the United States as children. Other major changes will affect the visa provisions for high-skilled workers and a new W-Visa for “essential hands” workers, he noted.

The cost of the bill is high, primarily because of the increased enforcement along the southern border. In order for provisions related to the pathway to citizenship to be realized, the secretary of Homeland Security would have to certify that 90 percent of all unauthorized crossings are intercepted, in what is called the “border trigger.” The secretary would also have to ensure that the E-Verify system is implemented by businesses across the United States. Visa changes would also take place: the proportion of family-based visas would shift to favor employment-based visas. Additionally, a new point system would be implemented that assigns a score to immigrants’ skills. One of the biggest changes, Chishti said, is that if the bill passes, the United States will add more flexibility to the immigration system so that it can adapt to changes in immigration flows and labor market demands.

Possible Roadblocks

While the panelists are cautiously optimistic about the bill, they reiterated that there are several possible issues that could split the “Gang of Eight,” or otherwise scuttle the bill. One such roadblock stems from two amendments by Judiciary Chairman Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) regarding same-sex binational couples, which Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY)—a member of the Gang of Eight—has publicly supported. While the amendments would likely pass the Judiciary Committee, Republicans like Senator Marco Rubio, who helped to draft the bipartisan bill, have said that they wouldn’t support it.

Another possible roadblock to immigration reform comes from the bill’s finalization in the House of Representatives. That bill would likely include what Benítez calls strict “prove-it” provisions, which would make legalization contingent on undocumented immigrants proving how long they’ve been in the country, that they’ve paid taxes, and have been steadily employed. According to Benítez, the House version would also likely include more fees and penalties for undocumented immigrants through a formal plea bargain, a wait time of at least 15 years, and stricter border security triggers.

Chishti and Benítez agreed that more “poison pills” are expected to be added to the bill via the amendment process. The overall cost of reform, which the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office will estimate in the coming weeks, will also be a factor. Ultimately, though, panelists said the biggest challenge rests in the divide between the pro-reform Republican leadership and the rank-and-file Republican members of Congress reluctant to get on board.

Passage of the Bill

While there is no clear timeline for the immigration bill, Chishti believes that the issue must be resolved before 2014, an election year when all House seats and 33 percent of the Senate will be up for election. Panelists explained that for the bill to be successful, the Senate must vote on the bill before the August recess, and the House must vote before October. Chishti added that if the bill isn’t passed before November 2013, the likelihood of it becoming law decreases significantly.

Speakers noted that the success of the bill will depend in large part on House Speaker Representative John Boehner (R-OH). The Hastert Rule, introduced in the 1990s, is a governing principle that House speakers have used in which a bill reaches the floor only if the majority of the majority party is in favor. Boehner has only made three exceptions to this rule: the fiscal cliff, Hurricane Sandy relief, and the Violence Against Women Act. It remains to be seen whether he will make a similar exception for the immigration bill. The panelists concluded that the bill has a 50-50 chance of passing.