Surprises in Mexico's State Elections

Nearly half of Mexico’s states headed to the ballot box on Sunday on an election day that produced a series of surprising results. Yes, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won a majority of the gubernatorial races as expected, snagging nine out of the 12 governorships up for grabs. But its three losses occurred in states long considered PRI strongholds and where the governing National Action Party (PAN) and the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) formed unlikely alliances. The PAN-PRD victories could portend more partnering between the two parties ahead of the 2012 presidential election to counter what many consider a resurgence by the PRI, which governed the country for more than seven decades.  For many, the election results were a positive sign of the country's burgenoing democracy, even in the face of drug-war fears. As Mexican historian Enrique Krauze writes: "What voters did in many places was simply vote out corrupt or ineffective incumbent governors, mayors and other state and local officials—regardless of party."

In three states, the results are of note, not only because the polls fell short of predicting results, but also because these PRI bulwarks lost to PAN-PRD alliances. Given the better-than-expected results for the alliance, the leadership of the two parties may seek coalitions in states holding elections next year, particularly in Estado de México, where the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto—considered the leading presidential candidate for the 2012 vote—currently serves as governor.

• Oaxaca: Although polls predicted a tight race between the PRI and the PAN-PRD coalition, the results gave the victory to the coalition candidate Gabino Cué by nine points. Called a “knockout loss”  by The Los Angeles Times’ La Plaza blog, the PRI’s defeat was considered  particularly historic in Oaxaca, where the party has governed for 80 years. Outgoing Governor Ulises Ruiz had been linked to corruption as well as violent repression during 2006 protests in the state capital. His replacement, Cué, who ran as a candidate for the Peace and Progress coalition, lost the 2004 gubernatorial race by a small margin.
• Puebla: Despite the fact that polls predicted a PRI victory in Puebla, Rafael Moreno Valle of the PAN won by 11 points represents an important state to win as it is the country’s fifth most populated and the sixth biggest contributor to the Mexican GDP (including Mexico City). A win here could translate into votes and funding for the presidential race as well as seats in the lower chamber of Mexico’s Congress.
• Sinaloa: known for the powerful influence of drug cartels, Sinaloa was another state to select a candidate from outside the PRI for the first time. The PAN’s Mario López Valdez, known as “Malova,” won by six points. Formerly of the PRI, Malova joined the PAN-PRD alliance before the PRI held primaries, arguing that he did not believe the candidate-selection process would be transparent.

Polling before elections also failed to predict just how tight the gubernatorial races would be in the states of Durango and Veracruz, where ballot results showed the PRI ahead by 1.8 percent and  2.8 percent  respectively. The PRI claimed victory in both states on Monday night  but the PAN declared its intentions of challenging the results in court. Durango was also among the six states that formed PAN-PRD alliances.

In the 14 state elections held, the PRI lost three long-held governorships, as well as a quarter of the mayoralties it won in 2007. However, the party continues to be a strong political force in the country and snatched up three states from opposition parties: Tlaxcala and Aguascalientes from the PAN and Zacatecas from the PRD. Under the Volcano blog reports on preliminary vote counts and shows the PRI won nearly half of all gubernatorial votes, compared to 26 percent for the PAN-PRD alliance, 18 percent for the PAN, and 5 percent for the PRD. Not only that, but in 11 out of 14 states holding votes, the PRI won a majority of the seats for local lawmakers. “This election proves the PRI is the leading political force in the country,” said the PRI’s national leader Beatriz Paredes. 

An article in Informador explores voter participation across the country, as well as in particular cities. With the exception of Tamaulipas—where the a gubernatorial candidate was killed last week—voter turnout was relatively stable when compared with 2004 elections.

Learn more:

• Read a pre-election AS/COA update on Mexico’s vote.
• State-by-state results from Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute.
• El Universal’s website offering coverage of the July 4 elections.
• CNN Mexico offers a photo gallery of the July 4 elections.