There May Be No Way to Overthrow Maduro

How can strongman Nicolás Maduro be stopped from stealing Venezuela’s election? That’s the ultimate question as the South American country’s impasse over the July 28 presidential election enters its second week.

Maduro, a socialist who has ruled the country for 11 years, claimed victory despite independent exit polling and analysis that clearly show Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition coalition’s candidate, as the winner. In a crucial show of support, the Biden administration agreed on Thursday, saying in a statement that González “won the most votes.” [...]

This year, Venezuelans thought they could change the status quo. “What made this scenario different was that for the first time in years, the Venezuelan people had genuine hope for change,” Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society, told me. The opposition mobilized an increasing number of Venezuelans dissatisfied with Chavismo. “But Maduro has shut the door on any hope for peaceful change,” Farnsworth said.

There are several reasons why. For one, Maduro seemingly has the unfaltering support of the military. Unless that changes, the regime will remain stable and Venezuelans’ strategy of taking to the streets will soon become unsustainable and dangerous. “It’s a very depressing scenario,” Farnsworth said, “but that’s my best case right now.” [...]

Even more depressing is that hope and patience may not be eternal in Venezuela. “We know from our sources and people we talked to on the ground that people are actively planning to leave. What else is there to stay for?” Farnsworth said. That’s why the United States and other countries have a vested interest in helping Venezuela’s opposition. But the leftist government of Colombia, which hosts the largest Venezuelan diaspora at nearly 3 million people, has remained friendly with Maduro...

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