Trump's Agenda Will Rise or Fall with the Americas
Trump's Agenda Will Rise or Fall with the Americas
It's clear the ''America First'' agenda will not ultimately succeed without getting the region right, writes Eric Farnsworth in The National Interest.
Secure borders. Controlled migration. Stopping fentanyl. Lowering inflation. Winning the innovation race. Building safe and efficient supply chains. Meeting expansive China’s geostrategic challenge. Ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. President Donald Trump isn’t wrong to highlight these concerns. They are real, and voters agree.
Yet, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Central America and migration challenges with Colombia show, it’s already clear the “America First” agenda will not ultimately succeed without getting the Americas right. That’s because core elements of the president’s agenda require the active cooperation of neighbors to address them effectively. The question is whether to view the hemisphere as a partner in meeting U.S. needs or to pursue policies that push the region aside, making core strategic and economic interests more difficult if not impossible to achieve.
It’s not too hard to see why this matters. As we discovered in the depths of the COVID pandemic, an overreliance on critical, non-diversified supply chains based in China is a national security threat. Basic health-related items were simply unavailable because they are uneconomic to produce in the United States. When we needed them most, we couldn’t get them. It was a terrifying moment.
Now consider another scenario that could soon be upon us: U.S. over-reliance on distant suppliers of microchips. An overwhelming number are manufactured in Asia, particularly Taiwan. As tensions with China build, the geographic over-concentration of global chip production has become an acute national security risk for both military and consumer supply chains. Just try to drive your car without computer chips. Or gain access to your bank account. Or run the power grid. Or fly a fighter jet or launch a nuclear submarine.
Some investment is already returning to the United States, which Trump called for during his recent remarks to Davos delegates. We could manufacture everything ourselves, theoretically, but at least since David Ricardo, autarky has been out of fashion. Geographic diversification is essential, especially in lower-value aspects of the supply chain.
The Western Hemisphere, which already boasts computer chip manufacturing capacity in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Panama, and like-minded leaders in Argentina and Paraguay, can be that play.
Meantime, China has effectively executed a long-term plan to create “facts on the ground” that support its own economic position and global strategic interests. In a sort of reverse Open-Door policy, China has found surprisingly limited resistance to its overtures in the Americas and is aggressively reorienting hemispheric relations by walking through the open door offered by Washington’s decades-long indifference.
In November, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, inaugurated the multibillion-dollar deep water Chancay port outside Lima, Peru, financed, built, and operated by the Chinese. The facility will link China more directly to continental mineral and agricultural riches by establishing a more efficient maritime route for cross-Pacific trade and dual-use capabilities for China’s burgeoning blue water navy. It is just the latest Chinese project, planting the Chinese flag on the west coast of South America and serving notice of long-term engagement...
