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Uncertainty Hangs over Argentina’s Political and Economic Future

By Michael Stott

"The economy played a much bigger role in the primaries than the government expected," said AS/COA's Juan Cruz Díaz to the Financial Times.

An unexpectedly heavy government defeat in Sunday’s midterm primary elections might sound like good news for investors who are keen to see Argentina trim spending, reduce inflation and reach agreement with the IMF on restructuring $45bn in debt.

But it is too soon to celebrate. The poor result for President Alberto Fernández’s leftist Peronist party does not necessarily herald better economic policy or an opposition victory in the 2023 presidential election. In the short term it might prompt a lurch towards more populist policies…

“The economy played a much bigger role in the primaries than the government expected,” said Juan Cruz Díaz, special advisor to Americas Society/Council of the Americas in Buenos Aires. “The government hoped the advance of vaccinations would have a bigger effect, but that was not the case.”…

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