U.S. Midterms Take LatAm Policy Pulse

The outcome of the November 2 midterm elections will likely play a role in shaping policy on issues that go beyond U.S. borders. AS/COA Online takes a look at debate over free trade, drug policy, border security, and immigration reform in the context of this election cycle.

With Republicans expected to snatch up congressional seats in these mid-term elections, some experts suggest new life could be breathed into President Barack Obama’s efforts to pass free-trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama. Although the Obama administration, like the Bush administration before it, voiced support for these trade deals as way to boost the U.S. economy, the accords continue to languish in Democrat-controlled Congress.

COA’s Eric Farnsworth outlines in The Miami Herald three reasons why the trade agenda’s path remains unclear: the election outcomes are uncertain, Tea Party representatives haven’t taken a clear position on free trade, and Republicans have stated that they will first focus on dismantling legislation under Obama such as healthcare reform. Given these hurdles and the fact that Democrats will be unlikely to push legislation that their union-heavy base opposes before the 2012 Presidential election, it is possible that stalling could continue until as late as 2013.
 

If passed, Proposition 19 would allow small-scale possession of marijuana, as well as state regulation and taxation of its sale. Mexican President Felipe Calderón has expressed his strong opposition to Proposition 19, saying that easing drug laws could undercut efforts to control organized crime in Mexico because: “Drugs kill in production. Drugs kill in distribution, as is the case in the violence in Mexico.” Meanwhile, Mexican authorities announced their biggest marijuana drug bust in history earlier this week, then ceremoniously lit up all 134 tons of it in Tijuana on October 21.

A new RAND paper studies takes a closer look at prop 19 and the potential impact on the profits of Mexican cartels, arguing that the drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) would see revenue losses of as little as 2 to 4 percent, undercutting arguments by proponents of prop 19 that legalization could help curb Mexico’s drug violence. It also contends that the measure would cut into DTO profits only if California-produced marijuana “is smuggled to other states at prices that outcompete current Mexican suppliers.”

Which way the vote will go remains unclear; polling shows that 49 percent of Californians oppose the measure while 44 percent support it.
 

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano highlighted in comments on October 18 that unprecedented levels of troop deployment to the border under President Barack Obama have led to a 36 percent decrease in border patrol apprehensions, indicating that fewer people are attempting to illegally cross the border. Despite these results and a $600 million border security bill passed by Congress and signed by Obama in late September, Republicans have charged Democrats during this election cycle with falling short on improving border security. For many Republicans, including Senator John McCain (R-AZ), the issue boils down to making securing the border a top priority and installing more guards, fences, and drones along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Yet some see immigration reform as going hand in hand with border security. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Alan Bersin recently said that Congress needs to “get serious about a post-election immigration overhaul if the nation is to deal with the duality of enforcing border security while facilitating trade.”
 

The issue of immigration reform has been a divisive point in several congressional races and looks to remain contentious after the election. President Barack Obama and Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) have emphasized the importance of comprehensive immigration reform while the emergence of the Tea Party has pushed some Republican candidates toward supporting anti-immigration legislation, reports Bloomberg.

In September, Senator Reid (D-NV) attempted to push through a version of the DREAM Act, which would offer children of undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship, but a Republican filibuster ultimately blocked his efforts. Other congressman and candidates have pitched laws calling for stricter enforcement. A Migration Information Source article covers the rash of immigration legislative action that sprang up ahead of elections.

In an interview with AS/COA Online, Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) called for a bipartisan approach to immigration reform, coordinated with border-security effort and a path to legalization. However, he warned that movement on immigration may stall until next year, when newly elected republicans are ready to reach across the aisle.

Learn more:

• Access AS/COA Online analysis of the Hispanic vote in the midterms.
• “Elections May Improve Outlook,” by Eric Farnsworth, The Miami Herald, October 18, 2010.
• Access AS/COA Online’s interview with Governor Bill Richardson.
• Poll data on Proposition 19.
• RealClearPolitics offers an interactive look at the congressional races across the country.