Weekly Roundup: Chávez's Reelection Bid, Betancourt in South America, and a Remittance Jump

Chávez, Now and Forever?

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has set his sights on extending his stay in office. On Sunday he called on his supporters to rally for a constitutional amendment that could end term limits, saying, “I’m ready to be with you until 2021.” Infolatam reports on Chávez’s decision to announce his reelection bid and opposition leader Manuel Rosales’ response: that Venezuela “doesn’t want a king.”

Rosales, who ran against the president in 2006, has been summoned to appear in court on December 11, standing accused of corruption. He denies the charges, saying they are a political move against him as a Chávez’s foe.

Read a recent AS/COA analysis of Venezuela's November 23 municipal elections.

Betancourt’s South American Tour

A day after protesters in 29 Colombian cities and 25 cities abroad demonstrated to demand the release of kidnappers held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), former hostage and political candidate Ingrid Betancourt made her first trip to South America since her July rescue. During her first stop in Colombia, where she met with President Álvaro Uribe, she agreed to help as much as possible with securing freedom for other FARC-held hostages. Families of 26 soldiers and police officers held hostage called on Betancourt to serve as their representative. Her travels also take her to Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Bolivia, and Venezuela. She is expected to visit Mexico before the year’s end. CNN Expansión offers an online photogallery of Betancourt’s tour.

Britain’s Telegraph reports that FARC desertions have reached their highest level in four decades of fighting.

Argentina Jumps on LatAm’s Russian Bandwagon

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner visits Moscow next week, adding another high-level Russo-Latin American meeting to the list in recent weeks. Trade between Russia and Argentina has quadrupled since 2003, according to RIA Novosti.

Following the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, President Dmitry Medvedev met with heads of state in Peru, Brazil, Venezuela, and Cuba. Several sources described Medvedev’s tour, which coincided with joint Venezuelan military exercises, as a Moscow’s attempt to show it can throw its weight around in Washington’s “backyard.” But the Economist argues that Latin America’s ties are diverse and that Beijing “is the new partner that matters.”

Read a recent AS/COA analysis of Chinese President Hu Jintao’s November trip to Latin America.

A Challenge for Obama: Latin America Quiet on Rights

In an op-ed for Newsweek, former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda writes that recent developments in Latin America show that the Obama administration will face a number of democratic challenges in the region and wonders how the next U.S. president will handle them. “Latin America, with few exceptions, prefers today to look the other way when electoral fraud takes place (Nicaragua), when authoritarian rule threatens (Venezuela) and when human rights are systematically violated (Cuba)… if matters get out of control in Nicaragua, in Venezuela, or in Cuba, what will Obama do?”

Hillary on U.S.-Bolivian Relations

With the U.S.-Bolivian relations in “political tatters” and President-elect Barack Obama announcing his selection of formal rival Senator Hillary Clinton as the next U.S. Secretary of State, the Democracy Center’s “Blog from Bolivia” offers some insight into Clinton’s view on Washington’s relationship with La Paz. The post quotes her response to a question taken while she was on the campaign trail earlier in the year, and posits that it could indicate a new tone in diplomatic relations with the Andean country: “I think that the United States has made a series of miscalculations…so I will try to create a new relationship with Latin America and that certainly includes Bolivia.”

Outlook for Bolivia’s Post-DEA Anti-Drug Policy

In an analysis for ISN Security Watch, Eliot Brockner writes that last month’s expulsion of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency will make Bolivia, the world’s third largest cocaine producer, more vulnerable to drug smugglers. Yet one closed door has led to the opening of another, with Bolivia and Brazil announcing a strategic anti-drug pact effective in January 2009. Brockner suggests that La Paz and Washington will likely seek to resume cooperation in the future. Still, “[w]hat may emerge is not the traditional US-dominant paradigm that has existed for decades, but rather an alliance of equal partners spearheaded by Brazil and the U.S. to combat drug smuggling in the region.”

Ambassador Urges U.S.-Mexican Cooperation on Drug War

With his diplomatic role in Mexico coming to a close, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza made a plea during a speech in Texas last week for U.S. cooperation in the fight against Mexico’s drug violence. "As U.S. ambassador to Mexico, I've tried to be honest with both Americans and Mexicans alike, and the truth is, Mexico would not be the center of cartel activity or be experiencing this level of violence were the United States not the largest consumer of illicit drugs and the main supplier of weapons to the cartels," said Garza. “The U.S. and Mexico must fight these criminal organizations together, or we will fail together.” In an interview with the Dallas Morning News’ Alfredo Corchado, Garza discussed bilateral concerns ranging from security to trade to immigration reform.

Peso Drops, Remittances Rise

With the U.S. dollar gaining against the Mexican peso by as much as 34 percent since August, Mexico witnessed a 13 percent jump in remittances during the month of October compared with the same month last year, reports Milenio. The rise comes after months of slowing remittance rates and, despite the increase, immigrants have sent nearly 2 percent less in funds to Mexico so far this year compared with the same period last year.

Two Years into a Calderón Presidency

Writing for Mexico’s The News, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Shannon O’Neil says that, after two years in office, Mexican President Felipe Calderón has made important strides on domestic policy in the areas of pension, tax, justice, and energy reforms. But, she notes, some “dismiss these reforms as too little, too late.” Similarly, the president’s foreign policy “shines in comparison to [former President Vicente] Fox’s.” Yet she says Calderón has not been able to effectively raise the country’s global profile and urges Mexico to seize the “chance to shape the international agenda.”

Brazil Top LatAm Market, but Faces “Technical Recession”

UBS strategists have described Brazil as their favorite equity market in Latin America for next year, saying the country’s shares are undervalued, its economy could expand more rapidly than predicted, and the Central Bank could lower interest rates. Yet Morgan Stanley predicted that the Brazilian economy may contract for the last two quarters of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 and suffer a recession.

High-Tech Moves to Protect Brazil’s Amazon Tribes

The Christian Science Monitor reports that the Brazilian government’s National Indian Foundation plans to put technology to use in protecting tribes in the Amazon threatened by farming, logging, and mining. Military planes flying over areas where tribes live will make use of high-tech equipment that includes radar, satellite, and infrared technology. One priority will be protection of the Piripkura tribe, which may have as few as three members left.

A new AS/COA analysis takes a look at an ambitious plan to protect Brazil’s Amazon from deforestation.

Fernández: Coordinate Response to Food and Energy Crises

In an op-ed published by the Houston Chronicle, President of the Dominican Republic Leonel Fernández urges the next U.S. administration to cooperate on easing rising food and energy prices. He proposes investing “a portion of the profits earned from today's high oil prices to benefit the countries that have been worse hit by the increases.” A means to accomplish such a goal would involve establishing an alliance of oil importing countries to cover costs through grants and soft loans. /article.php?id=1366

The original version of the president’s article was published by Americas Quarterly in the Fall 2008 issue: “Memos to the President-Elect.” Access content from the article at www.americasquarterly.org.

Chunk of Charges Dropped against P.R. Governor

On Monday, a U.S. judge dropped a majority of federal corruption charges against Puerto Rican governor Aníbal Acevedo Vilá, who had stood accused of alleged campaign finance violations during his 2004 campaign, reports the Latin Americanist blog. The judge said several of the charges were based on flawed interpretation of Puerto Rican law. Acedo Vilá, who lost his most recent bid for the governorship last month, will still stand tried in February.

Opinion Shift in Miami on U.S. Embargo against Cuba

A new survey released by Florida International University (FIU) found a shift in attitudes about the U.S. embargo against Cuba. According to the poll results, 55 percent of Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade county support an end of the embargo and nearly two-thirds support reestablishing diplomatic relations with the island. However, most respondents said the replacement of leader Fidel Castro with his brother Raúl will not result in real political change in Cuba. FIU has conducted the poll annually since 1991; this marks the first year that a majority of respondents voiced support for lifting the embargo.

In a recent article for Ambassadors REVIEW, AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini described the reforms launched by Raúl Castro as superficial in nature.

Alleviating the “Cuban Skateboarding Crisis”

Skateboarding may not be a crime in Cuba, but the island lags behind the rest of the skating world as a result of equipment and skills training shortages. The island only has one skate park and a skateboard represents several months of wages for the average Cuban. In a new post for the AQ blog, Danielle Renwick writes about efforts of artist Sofia Maldonado to bring Cuban skaters up to speed through a project called “Skate My Patria.” Using funds garnered from auctioning her art, Maldonado heads to Havana in March to deliver skate equipment, conduct skate clinics, and document her trip.