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Weekly Roundup: Ecuador's Constitutional Draft, Brazilian Boom, and LatAm Inflation Worries

Hispanic voters weigh in on candidates, Bolivians prepare for recall vote, and what's behind new Cold War rumors. Read these stories and more in the Weekly Roundup.

Ecuador’s New Constitution Approved for Referendum

On July 24, a constituent assembly approved a new draft constitution backed by Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa. The draft heads for a public vote on September 28. Opponents criticize the constitution for a provision that would allow the president to run for office for two additional terms. The Catholic Church also voiced its concern over the draft’s lax approach on abortion and granting equality under the law to same-sex unions.

Read a new AS/COA hemispheric update on Ecuador’s plans for constitutional reform.

How to Build an International Democratic Alliance

In a new article for Poder magazine, COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth examines proposals by U.S. presidential candidates to create a body of democratic nations, saying, "If carefully constructed, this may be an idea whose time has come." He recommends that past examples be taken into account to avoid the mistakes and build on the successes of predecessor organizations.

U.S. Hispanic Voters Weigh In on Presidential Candidates

A recent survey conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center during parts of June and July found that Hispanic voters overwhelmingly support the presumptive Democratic candidate over his Republican counterpart. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) commands support from 66 percent of Latino voters while Senator John McCain (R-AZ) attracts 23 percent, according to Pew research.

El Diario/La Prensa reports that the Obama campaign plans to invest $20 million in attracting the Hispanic vote.

Read AS/COA analysis of the U.S. presidential battle for the Hispanic vote.

Building on NAFTA

Jon E. Huenemann and Sidney Weintraub, fellows at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, write that, despite criticisms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during U.S. presidential campaigns, the pact between Canada, Mexico, and the United States “frames a massive amount of commerce and has set in motion nearly 20 years of trilateral work in which all three countries have invested major political capital.” Their analysis recommends that the next U.S. president should approach NAFTA partners to build on pre-existing mechanisms created under NAFTA in an effort to address proposals by all three countries.

View a C-SPAN interview with COA’s Vice President Eric Farnsworth about NAFTA as flexible document allowing the three partners to come together as a means to find ways to cooperate.

Danger in South America’s Other Tri-Border Area

An ISN Security Watch analysis examines last week’s meeting of the presidents of Brazil, Colombia, and Peru in the tri-border region of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina—an area troubled by drugs and gun smuggling. The article says the summit bolstered Brazil’s diplomatic influence in South America, effectively sidelining Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

Limited Fanfare in Lead-up to Bolivian Vote

The Cochabamba-based Democracy Center’s blog provides coverage of the mood in advance of Bolivia’s August 10 recall referendum. The latest analysis finds Bolivians more interested in the rising cost of bread and notes that “Bolivian politics has developed a long habit of being operated under rules that are never quite clear.”

According to a recent poll, President Evo Morales appears likely to win the required votes needed to stay in office.

Read AS/COA analysis covering the recall vote.

A New Cold War?: The Rumor about Russian Bombers in Cuba

In a recent podcast, Stratfor takes a look at recent rumors that Moscow would dispatch nuclear-capable bombers to a base in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to build a defense shield in Eastern Europe—Russia’s backyard. The analysis contends that, given the current U.S. focus on the economy and other conflicts, Moscow may have been trying to gain attention by signaling it could also have a military presence on the U.S. doorstep.

Booming Brazil, “The World’s Hottest Market"

Writing for Newsweek’s “Why It Matters” blog, special correspondent Marc Mogolis takes a look how Brazilians, after decades of “flirting with greatness” find themselves experiencing boom times and “looking down on much of the serious world.” As evidence, Margolis points to Brazil’s growing number of privately-owned helicopters, the real outpacing 16 of the world’s top currencies, and 20 million Brazilians moving into the middle class. The blog entry serves as a sister piece to Margolis’ Newsweek article on how Brazil became the world’s hottest market.

AS/COA recently hosted its annual Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo. Read a summary and listen to podcasts of the event, which included remarks by Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles, Minister of Planning Paulo Bernardo Silva, and Brazilian business leader Jorge Gerdau.

Bumpy Week for Brazilian Stocks

Despite glowing reports about the Brazilian economy, the Bovespa index suffered the longest run of losses in almost a year with stocks falling for five days in a row, reports Bloomberg. Brazilian stocks retreated more than 20 percent, along the lines of similar results from Mexico’s Bolsa and Colombia’s IGBC stock exchanges. Brazil’s Central Bank raised its interest rate by three-quarters of a point, worrying investors.

Latin American Inflation Concerns

University of Pennsylvania’s Universia Knowledge speaks with various experts about rising inflation rates across Latin America and related concern that the trend could bite into the region’s economic expansion. While rising food and commodity prices play a role in growing inflation, stemming could require more creative monetary policies, according to the analysis.

Pinochet’s Daughter Announces Candidacy

Lucia Pinochet Hiriart, the eldest daughter of the late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, announced that she will run for office as councilor in the district of Vitacura, one of the wealthiest vicinities in Santiago, reports the BBC. Chile’s highly contested municipal elections take place in October.

Read AS/COA’s analysis on the Chile’s 2009 presidential election.

Argentine Ex-Army Chief Gets Life Sentence

Former Army General Luciano Menendez was sentenced to spend the rest of his life behind bars for the kidnapping, torture, and murder of four young leftists in 1977. Menendez led  the army during the country’s Dirty War; Argentina was ruled by a military junta from 1976 to 1983.

Honduran Melon Business Damaged by FDA Report

The Miami Herald reports about a Honduran melon farm that has seen business upended after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sent out an as-yet unproven report that the melons were a suspected source of salmonella. In recent weeks, the FDA has come under fire for mistakenly linking salmonella to some types of tomatoes, including some from Mexico. The FDA later cleared tomatoes and faulted Mexican jalapeños for a U.S.-based salmonella outbreak.

 
Turning Down Narcocorridos
 
Though still popular with many fans, Mexico’s narcocorridos—songs chronicling the world of the country’s drug cartels—are experiencing growing resistance at a time when Mexico finds itself terrorized by drug-related violence. The Los Angeles Times reports on radio stations and nightclubs refusing to play the songs, even as mobsters coerce musicians into playing narcorridos.