Weekly Roundup: The Hispanic Vote, Cuban Oil Reserves, and Chile's Crime Fears

The Hispanic Vote’s Crucial Role in the U.S. Election

The number of Hispanics living in swing states continues to rise and may prove definitive in the upcoming presidential elections. The New Republic mapped the number of Hispanics as a share of the population in contested states such as Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. The analysis says Latinos “cannot be treated as a monolithic subgroup,” but points out that Democratic nominee Barack Obama polls with a two-to-one margin among Latino voters. A new poll by Faith in Public Life shows a significant shift among Latino Protestants towards the Democratic Party over the GOP. This group of voters supported George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election at a rate of 60 percent. The poll suggests that Republican presidential nominee John McCain will win less than 34 percent of this voting bloc. Immigration policy serves as a critical factor in considering the candidates, according to the results of the survey.

AS/COA hosted an October 10 panel discussion on Hispanics' economic contributions. Read a program summary of the event.

New Citizens Get Voting Guidance

Newly naturalized immigrants receive guidance on how to register, where to find their polling stations, and how to vote from a myriad of community organizations facing the upcoming election. Volunteers walk the precincts, hold forums, run phone banks, and distribute voter guides in Spanish, as part of the Ya es hora, Vé y Vota campaign, reports the Los Angeles Times.

Spain Could Play Post-U.S. Election LatAm Role

In an op-ed for El País, Real Instituto Elcano researcher Paul Isbell explores potential advantages that Spain may gain from a possible political shift after the U.S. presidential elections. Cooperation on energy and climate change policies could serve pivotal points to improve relations, with an opportunity for Spain to play a major role in a U.S.-Latin American strategic energy alliance, writes Isbell.

The Forgotten Issue: Immigration

Newsday takes a look at the impact of undocumented immigration in Long Island in the context of the U.S. immigration debate. The article points out that, while both U.S. presidential candidates have laid out plans to address this pressing issue, they have avoided the topic in presidential debates and on the campaign trail.

Undocumented Immigration to U.S. Slows

Migration Information Source takes a look at recent reports documenting a downturn in undocumented immigration. The analysis notes that experts disagree on the root cause of the change, with enforcement proponents attributing it to tightened security while others say it’s the result of the sinking U.S. economy.

Read an AS/COA analysis of how the present economic downturn affects immigrant remittance flows.

Revising Latin America's Economic Outlook

The credit crunch that sparked global market volatility in recent weeks has let to adjusted estimates for Latin American growth in 2009. RGE Monitor’s Vitoria Saddi writes that the strengths that “were the hallmark of the boom cycle of the last five years will help cushion the decline in growth, but they cannot prevent it.” Her analysis says the weakness of the U.S. economy will have an impact on Mexico while Venezuela and Argentina could face risks resulting from the drop in commodity prices.

Kirchner Announces Pension Fund Reform

Argentine stocks took a hit Tuesday following a proposal by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to close down 10 private funds established in 1994 and create a state pension system. The president says the move serves in “protecting our pensioners and our workers” while opposition leaders accused her administration of “ransacking.”

Canadian Liberal Leader Resigns

Liberal Party Leader Stéphane Dion announced intentions to step down from his position after his political party lost 19 parliamentary seats in October 14 elections. Dion blamed an aggressive media campaign run against him by the Conservative party, which criticized his green-tax proposal. He will continue to lead the party until a new leader is selected at the next general convention in May 2009.

Reasons Behind Russian Influence in Latin America

Closer economic and military cooperation between Russia and Latin American countries raise Cold War memories, but warmer times could be little more than a geopolitical game with the United States rather than a real security threat, explain writer Sam Logan and security analyst Simon Saradzhyan in an article for ISN Security Watch. The analysis says that Russia found the perfect partner in Venezuela to expand its influence in the Western Hemisphere. But the authors also write that while Moscow once backed anti-American regimes, the leading reason to create links with Latin America now is economic as Russia seeks to expand its energy and defense industries.

Read AS/COA coverage of Russo-Venezuelan relations.

Cuba’s Deep-Water Oil Reserves

Wall Street Journal’s Environmental Capital blog reports about a recent Cuban announcement that, based on deep-water surveys, Havana may command hefty offshore oil reserves. The blog points out that under the current embargo prohibits U.S. oil companies from dealing with Cuba while Petrobras and Repsol can move in to conduct exploratory drilling. One caveat for Cuba is that most deep-water drilling rigs are booked and not available in the near future.

Colombia Shuts Down Drug Ring Linked to Hezbollah

After more than two years of investigation, Colombian authorities ended a drug ring that stretched from South America to Asia. Among the dozens detained in the past few days were three men accused of channeling funds to Hezbollah.

Real Crime vs. Fear of Crime in Chile

A Time article examines growing fear of crime in Chile, where the rate of anxiety about crime outpaces that of Argentina, Paraguay, and Colombia. While Chileans increasingly view security as the country’s most pressing problem, figures show that the number of crimes committed in has remained constant or decreased. Crime could serve as a central issue in next year’s presidential election, posits the article.

Reheating Mexican-Cuban Diplomatic Relations

After ten years of chilly relations between the two countries, Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque visited Mexican President Felipe Calderón in a formal attempt to normalize bilateral relations. Also, an invitation for Calderón to visit Cuba was delivered at the meeting. El Universal reports that, over the past eight months, trade between the two countries increased by 80 percent. Arguably the most important outcome of the meeting was an agreement for Mexico to crack down on Cuban migrants traveling from the island and through Mexico to reach the United States. The Foreign Policy Association’s migration blog has more.

Mexico also awaits a visit from Roque’s U.S. counterpart. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who travels to Puerto Vallarta for Wednesday and Thursday to meet with Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa. The agenda includes “extensive conversations about the program of cooperation that’s represented by the Merida Initiative,” said State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack.

Lugo Makes First White House Visit

In his first official visit to the White House on October 27, Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo meets with U.S. counterpart George W. Bush on October 27. Topics on the agenda include the economy, regional security, and Paraguay’s fight against corruption, Mercopress reports.

Lugo’s presidency marks the first break from control by Paraguay’s Colorado Party in over six decades. Access remarks delivered at AS/COA by the new president at a September event.

U.S. Proposal to Protect Peru’s Rainforest

The United States and Peru inked a deal whereby the United States would reduce Peru’s debt payments in exchange for protection of Peru's Amazonian forest. The move will generate more than $25 million in savings that should be redirected to fund conservation plans, backed by the Tropical Forest Conservation Act of 1997.

UNASUR Chooses Bolivia as Site for Parliament

The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) voted to build its parliament in Bolivia after a meeting held in Cochabamba. President Michelle Bachelet, UNASUR’s interim president, led the meeting and set the conditions to form a committee made up of representatives from UNASUR, MERCOSUR, and the Andean Parliament.