Weekly Roundup: LatAm Views on Democracy, Brazil's Racial Quotas, Juarez's Comeback

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Latinobarómetro 2013: Evaluating LatAm Views on Democracy and Institutions

On November 1, public opinion pollster Latinobarómetro released the results of its 2013 survey of 18 Latin American countries. In an analysis of the data, The Economist notes that only 40 percent of respondents feel satisfied with how democracy works in their country. Meanwhile, support for democracy as the preferred system of government is strongest in Venezuela, with 87 percent in favor, and weakest in Mexico, with only 37 percent in favor. Uruguayans are most satisfied with how their democracy works in practice, and Hondurans are the least satisfied. In all countries, around 70 percent view the Church as a trustworthy institution, while only 30 percent see their national Congress as trustworthy.

Mexican Senate Approves Tax Reform

The Mexican Senate approved President Enrique Peña Nieto’s tax reform bill on October 30, and the measure will go into effect on January 1, 2014, after the president signs the bill. The legislation raises income tax on the wealthy, as well as imposing an eight-cent tax on soft drinks and an 8 percent sales tax on junk food. The bill also creates a uniform 16 percent sales tax across the country, removing lower sales taxes in regions along the U.S. and Guatemalan borders. ADN Politico identifies 78 cities that currently have a preferential 11 percent tax rate and will be affected by the new hike, ranging from Tijuana to Tulum. Many along the border argue the tax increase will lead people to do U.S. shopping and harm local business. The border “is a different region, that every day must compete with a powerful country like the United States,” says Baja California Governor José Guadalupe Osuna Millán.

Ciudad Juarez Resurrected?

A new GlobalPost series looks at security improvements in Ciudad Juarez, where murder rates now run at a seventh of 2010 figures and violent carjackings dropped 87 percent over the same period. Some who fled during the years of violence are returning, leading to revitalized business and new jobs. But, writes Dudley Althaus, many residents wonder if the peace will hold, as problems such as extortion and low factory wages persist, meaning “[n]early all the causes of the violence remain, lurking.”

Peru’s Humala Reshuffles Cabinet, Replaces Prime Minister

In a bid to push through stalled reforms, President Ollanta Humala asked Prime Minister Juan Jiménez to step down, reported Reuters on October 30. Humala tapped Cesar Villanueva, San Martín regional governor, as a replacement to become the fourth prime minister during Humala’s administration. Jiménez is not the only cabinet change Humala will make, notes La Republica in a profile of the new PM. The ministers of agriculture, economy, education, the interior, and foreign affairs are also expected to leave their posts soon.

No House Arrest for Fujimori

On October 29, a Peruvian judge denied the request for former President Alberto Fujimori to spend the remainder of his sentence under house arrest. The former leader is serving 25 years for crimes against humanity; an infographic published by Bolivia’s La Razón outlines Fujimori’s criminal offenses. His daughter, Keiko, a former presidential candidate, said the family would appeal the decision.

In Colombia, Uribe’s New Party Nominates Presidential Candidate

On October 26, Colombia’s former Minister of Finance Óscar Iván Zuluaga won the nomination to represent former President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center political party during the 2014 presidential race. Uribe, formerly of the National Unity Party, decided to break off and create his own party in January. In an analysis of the vote, Semana points out that former Vice President Francisco Santos—President Juan Manuel Santos’ cousin—had led the polls as the favorite to win. Both the former vice president and Zuluaga oppose negotiating with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

Argentina’s Legislative Election Results

On October 27, Argentines went to the polls to elect half of the lower house of Congress and a third of the Senate. The ruling party bloc maintained a majority in both houses, but won just 33 percent of the vote. A key opposition candidate, Tigre Mayor Sergio Massa, won a congressional seat with 43 percent of the vote.

Brazil’s Congress to Consider Racial Quotas in Legislatures

On October 30, the Constitutional and Justice Commission in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved a draft bill that would impose racial quotas within Brazil’s lower house and in state legislatures. The bill would allot a percentage of Chamber seats equivalent to two-thirds the size of Afro-Brazilian population. At present, that would mean 173 seats out of 513 would be reserved for Afro-Brazilian candidates. The proposal—a constitutional amendment— requires approval by three-fifths of each house.

Brazilian Government Creates Intel Group to Monitor Protests

This week, Brazilian Minister of Justice José Eduardo Cardozo announced a series of federal measures to combat ongoing violence at Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo protests. The plan includes creating a group of national and state security forces to exchange intelligence and to monitor the demonstrations, as well as discussions on changing legislation to increase punishments for protest-based violence. Writing for Carta Capital’s Other Words blog, journalist Antonio Martins points out that vandalism at the demonstrations—which had the largest turnouts in June— could be weakening the legitimate social demands of protesters.

Ahead of Election, Honduras Presidential Race Narrows

With one month left before Hondurans cast ballots for the presidential election, a CID-Gallup poll from October 9 to 15 showed that Juan Orlando Hernández has pulled ahead of top contender Xiomara Castro de Zelaya by 5 points. Hernández, of the National Party, serves as president of the Honduran Congress, and Castro de Zelaya is the wife of deposed former President Manuel Zelaya. October 24 was the final day to release public opinion polls, as surveys are banned within 30 days of the election. The presidential vote takes place on November 24.

Caracas Posters Blame Venezuela’s Opposition for Power, Food Shortages

This week, posters appeared around Caracas with the faces of prominent opposition politicians Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López, and María Corina Machado accompanied with text saying the “evil trio” was responsible for electricity and food shortages. “Enough of the violence,” the posters read. Social psychologist Axel Capriles told El Universal that these types of posters are typically used by governments to “deepen polarization and to create scapegoats.” In mid-October, National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello said that Capriles could be arrested for alleged connections to post-election violence in April.

In a new article for Americas Quarterly on Venezuela’s electricity woes, investigative journalist César Batiz notes that the country’s national electric system experienced 10,647 power failures from January to June 2013, in spite of $3.8 billion in investments since 2010.

Poll: Bachelet Favored to Win Chilean Election

An October 29 CEP poll finds that former President Michelle Bachelet, of the Concertación coalition, would win 47 percent of the ballots cast in the presidential race. While that figure puts her below the 50 percent needed to win without a runoff, when taking into account overall vote counts to include blank and null votes, she would win 60 percent and could avoid a second round. Her main contender, the Independent Democratic Union Party’s Evelyn Matthei, is polling at 14 percent. Chileans vote on November 17 and a runoff would take place December 15.

In Russia, Ecuador Inks Deals in Energy and Infrastructure

During a state visit to Russia this week, Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and penned a series of agreements in energy, infrastructure, and technology worth around $1.5 billion. Russia will help finance the construction of a thermal power station and agreed to work on several hydroelectric projects in Ecuador.

Cuba Boosts China Trade Ties

Trade between China and Cuba rose to more than $10 billion between January and August of this year, representing a 25 percent increase over the same period last year, reports EFE. Cuban exports to the Asian giant amounted to nearly half a billion dollars and mainly consisted of products from the biotechnology, mining, and tobacco industries.