Weekly Roundup: Mexico Reopens, Brazil Taps Tupi, and Martinelli Wins in Panama

H1N1 Scare Shows Signs of Ebbing

More than a week after a global swine flu scare, some are sounding notes of cautious optimism. Speaking on Sunday’s Meet the Press, the Center for Disease Control’s Acting Director Dr. Richard Besser spoke of “encouraging signs.” He suggested that deaths related to the disease in Mexico may be related to the widespread nature of the disease there. Still, the optimism has also been tempered with caution. As The Economist notes, the World Health Organization’s Margaret Chan warned that, even though H1N1 could subside in the near future, the world must be prepared in the case that it returns.

Stratfor offers an analysis of how and why panic spread about H1N1.

Mexico, Feeling Flu’s Impact, Restarts Engine

On May 6, as Mexico City businesses reopened after five days of mandated closure, Mexican Health Minister José Ángel Córdova Villalobos confirmed 42 deaths related to H1N1. Finance Minister Agustin Carstens warned that Mexico’s economy, already battered by the global financial crisis, would lose $2 billion because of the outbreak and see it’s growth rate decrease by as much as 0.5 percent as a result. Carstens announced a $2 billion stimulus package to push recovery, particularly for tourism and small business sectors.

Minister Carstens will join the Council of the Americas on May 13 for the 39th Annual Washington Conference on the Americas. Access a complete list of speakers and a conference agenda. Registration for the event closes on May 8.

Flu Outbreak Causes Mexico-China Spat

Controversy over treatment of Mexican citizens sparked tensions with Beijing in recent days. Mexico’s Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa called China’s decision to quarantine 70 Mexicans “unacceptable” and “without foundation.” Financial Times reports that the World Health Organization asked China to justify its decision to confine dozens of Mexicans as well as 22 Canadian citizens to hotel rooms, as well as its cancellation of flights to Mexico. The Washington Post’s John Pomfret asks, “[W]ill targeting people with Mexican passports really stop H1N1's spread?”

As AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini explained in an H1N1 special on PBS’ Worldfocus, Mexico has found itself a victim of widespread discrimination. “Many Mexicans feel rightly aggrieved that they're being targeted,” said Sabatini, who touched on the economic consequences of the epidemic within Mexico, noting that several industries have been hit hard and that tourism may suffer for months to come.

The New Republic’s “Treatment” blog examines why blaming Mexicans for the flu “is immoral. And foolish.”

Supermarket Magnate Wins Panamanian Elections

Business leader Ricardo Martinelli, the opposition candidate, easily won Panama’s May 3 election, defeating rival Balbina Herrera with 61 percent of the vote. TIME takes a look at what the millionaire’s victory means for the country, a bilateral trade deal with the United States, and the canal’s development. Bloggingsbyboz offers a five-point-perspective on Martinell's win, including economic and security challenges.

Read an interview with COA’s Eric Farnsworth about Panama’s presidential election.

Russia Expels Canadian Diplomats in Tit for Tat

The Globe and Mail reports on a Russian move to expel two Canadians working for NATO and based in Moscow. The step came in response to NATO’s decision last week to revoke accreditation of two members of Russia’s mission to its headquarters as a result of a spy scandal that began in February.

China Overtakes U.S. as Brazil’s Top Trade Partner

Since the 1930s, the United States stood as Brazil’s top trading partner. Starting Monday, China took that spot. According to new data, Sino-Brazilian bilateral trade hit $3.2 billion in April, rising above $2.8 billion worth of U.S.-Brazilian trade for the same period. Trade between Brazil and China rose by nearly 56 percent between 2007 and 2008. (Hat tip to Latin Americanist blog.) 

Brazil Hit by Widespread Flooding

Some 180,000 people have fled their homes in northeastern Brazil as flooding hit eight states and 190 towns. The region, typically plagued by drought, had endured weeks of rains when the floods began and meteorologists predict two more weeks of rain. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attributed the disaster to climate change.

Cancer Gives Brazil’s PT Candidate Poll Boost

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Worker’s Party (PT) may have gotten an unexpected boost ahead of the 2010 elections, when candidates will vie to replace the popular South American leader. Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chief of staff and his possible successor, announced last week that she has lymphatic cancer. She will undergo four months of treatment and her doctor is optimistic about her recovery. An analysis on Brazzil.com looks at possible replacement candidates and what her diagnosis means in the context of the race. Blogger Samuel Logan writes about how the Lula camp’s handling of the news, including sharing information about her illness and her commitment to not give up, “has dealt a political master stroke.”

Petrobras Opens Tupi’s Taps

The Wall Street Journal’s Environmental Capital blog covers the May 1 start of commercial production in Tupi, Brazil’s massive oild field in the pre-salt layers of the Santos Basin. As Guy Chazan writes, “The jubilation in Brazil at the wave of offshore discoveries quickly segued into a national debate about how to increase the state’s oil take.”

Brazil Repeals Dated Censorship Law

Last week, Brazil’s Supreme Court repealed a law on the books since 1967, when it was enacted during military rule to allow censorship of media and books. The law has rarely been enforced since the country returned to democratic rule, but the court overturned it, finding it incompatible with the Brazilian constitution.

May 4 was World Press Freedom day. AQ blogger Liz Harper examines press freedom in the Americas, with a focus on the United States, Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico.

Uribe Calls on Chávez for Capture of FARC Members

On Sunday, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe urged Venezuela to arrest members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) thought to have fled to Venezuela after killin eight Colombian soldiers last week. “We ask on behalf of a respectable democracy that the killers of the soldiers must not go unpunished in any territory,” said Uribe. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez responded by saying his country does not offer haven to the FARC and that Caracas will not “meddle in that war.”

An editorial in El Tiempo makes the case that the FARC is the shared enemy of both countries and warns that Caracas’ ambiguity on the matter could harm bilateral relations.

In Haiti, Protecting the Environment to Prevent Instability

A new International Crisis Group report finds that, while instability in Haiti can’t solely be attributed to environmental degradation, environmental problems have been a root cause of the country’s social, economic, and political crises. “Concerted national effort and international support is required to stop deforestation and land erosion; reduce energy shortages and charcoal dependence; address rural and urban pollution, including the absence of a solid waste collection and recycling system; and strengthen an inadequate capacity to cope with natural disasters,” according to the report. The publication came out as Haiti faces another potentially dangerous hurricane season.

How to Repair a Fragmented Inter-American System

Writing for ForeignAffairs.com, Richard Feinberg suggests that the recent Summit of the Americas demonstrated the fragmented nature of the Inter-American system. “The question still remains whether a results-oriented, hub-and-spoke flexible functionalism will pull friendly states back into the U.S. orbit and gradually persuade the rejectionist states that, on balance, they would do better to diminish their anti-Americanism, if not abandon it altogether,” writes Feinberg.

Access an AS/COA resource guide to the summit.

Prospects for New Steps on EU-Latam Cooperation

Eliot Brockner of Latin American Thought blog offers a look at how the issue of Latin American security could open the door for areas of cooperation with Europe, the world’s second biggest cocaine market. One step is the announcement by Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos that the United Kingdom seeks to strengthen strategic ties with Bogota in the fight against drug trafficking. “Gang activity and a rise in cocaine use have awoken Europe to the reality that they are not immune to the drug-related violence that has plagued many parts of the Americas for years,” writes Brockner. “How they deal with the problem will be an important step in the future of European-Latin American relations.”

Ahmadinejad Cancels LatAm Travel Plans

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad canceled a trip planned to Latin America this week. The trip would have involved a two-day visit to Brazil but also included stops in Ecuador and Venezuela. The University of North Carolina’s Greg Weeks blogs that the reason behind the cancellation that Ahmadinejad’s “trips to Latin America (not to mention his promises of aid) are not terribly popular in Iran.” The postponement comes days after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called inroads made in Latin America by Iran and China “disturbing.”

COA’s Eric Farnsworth has provided commentary on Iran’s relationship with Latin America. Read an article he wrote on the subject in Poder.

Aracataca Gives Gabriel García Márquez Tourism Another Try

GlobalPost reports on previous failed attempts for Aracataca to cash in as the hometown of world-renowned author Gabriel García Márquez. The Colombian town will give it another try this month with the unveiling of a museum in the writer’s childhood home.

Join Americas Society on May 27 for a reading from the biography Gabriel García Márquez: A Life by Gerald Martin.