Weekly Roundup: Uribe's Medal, Calderón's Visit, and Multilatinas

Bush Decorates Álvaro Uribe with Medal

On Tuesday, U.S. President George W. Bush awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, as well as former Prime Ministers Tony Blair of England and John Howard of Australia. Upon delivering the medal, Bush praised Uribe as a leader who has “reawakened the hopes of his countrymen and shown a model of leadership to a watching world.” While accepting the rewad, Uribe pledged “provisional amnesty” for Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) members who choose to desert the guerilla group, noting that 3,500 FARC soldiers deserted last year.

Read an AS/COA analysis about the increasing weakness of the FARC.

Obama, Calderón Talk Trade, Immigration

President-elect Barack Obama met with Mexican President Felipe Calderón on Monday in the president-elect’s first meeting with a foreign leader since winning the election. The leaders talked security, immigration, and trade. Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs said that Obama “expressed his continued commitment to upgrading NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement],” the Dallas Morning News reports.

In a subsequent meeting with Washington Post reporters and editors, Calderón said the Obama administration faces the threat of rising opposition to U.S. principles in Latin America, including free markets and the rule of law. He also said that Obama warned him about obstacles in Washington to securing immigration reform.

The Obama-Calderón meeting came as the AS/COA’s Trade Advisory Group released Building the Hemispheric Growth Agenda: A New Framework for Policy, a report that details “ways to reignite trade and integration with Latin America even during troubled economic times.”

Read an AS/COA analysis on the Obama-Calderón meeting.

A Recipe for Building Hemispheric Growth

The AS/COA Trade Advisory Group released the report Building the Hemispheric Growth Agenda: A New Framework for Policy, detailing ways for Washington to reignite trade and integration with Latin America, even during troubled economic times. The report outlines several steps that can be taken to bolster trade expansion efforts: the harmonization of rules of origin within existing U.S. trade agreements, the creation of a subgroup of willing nations to lead hemispheric energy security and climate change initiatives, increased engagement with the Asia-Pacific region, and broader cooperation with Brazil.

In an AS/COA interview, international trade expert James Bacchus discusses the report and the need for the Obama administration “to come forward with some evidence that the United States is willing to work on a hemispheric basis.”

How Americans Support Mexican Cartels

Weapons smuggled from the United States and U.S. hunger for illegal drugs help foster growing violence in Mexico, writes Council of Foreign Relations Fellow Shannon O’Neil in Foreign Policy’s “The Argument” blog. She points out that, despite the fact that the Merida Initiative pledges $400 million in U.S. funds to fight the drug war, “U.S. drug consumers send at least $12 billion a year back to Mexico's cartels.”
 
Read AS/COA coverage on the expanding reach of Mexican drug cartels around the world and the Merida Initiative.

Soaring Diesel Prices Hit Mexico

Harvard International Review’s Jason Lakin reports on strikes by Mexican fishermen and truckers in response to rising diesel fuel prices during an economic slowdown. Lakin suggests that the Mexican government “promise short-term subsidies in exchange for longer-term investments in fuel efficiency.”

Bolivia’s Latest Political Cracks

On January 25, the Bolivian electorate heads to the polls to vote in a referendum on a new constitution. In his blog “Pronto,” Miguel Centellas predicts Bolivia will become increasingly divided in the coming year. He writes that “regional political identities are emerging, dividing the country in previously unexpected ways.” Evangelicals, who previously supported President Evo Morales, now call for a “no” vote on the constitution, as do several indigenous leaders.

A recent poll conducted by Observatorio de Gestión Pública in December shows that more than 65 percent of Bolivians would vote in favor of the constitutional reform, with only 16 percent against it, and 19 percent still undecided.

Defense Minister to Lobby for Plan Colombia

In a Q&A, Los Angeles Times’ Chris Kraul talked with Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos. The minister will meet with Obama shortly after the inauguration to seek reassurances that Washington will continue funding Plan Colombia. When asked about the bad timing to ask for money, the minister responded by saying, “the way we see it, the cost of support for Colombia is small in relation to the $1 trillion deficit, but that the usefulness of this help is huge and at minimal cost compared to Iraq.”

To Run or Not to Run for Reelection

Semana offers an analysis of Uribe’s indecision about running for reelection a second time. “As a consequence of this ambiguity, the country finds itself in a sort of political paralysis that is resulting in institutional limbo,” according to the article.

Read an AS/COA analysis about the possibility that Uribe will seek reelection.

Fujimori Trial Nears End

The trial against former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori entered its final stage on January 12, when final arguments began. Fujimori faces criminal charges for his alleged intellectual participation on several massacres against political opponents and Shining Path guerrilla member in the 1990s.

Southern Cone Facing Dangerous Drought

Uruguayan officials declared an emergency to help farmers and cattle ranchers survive in the face of a drought that has killed livestock and reduced crop yields. According to forecasts, the situation will not approve in the short term. Argentine officials also sounded an alarm, predicting that March will stand as the driest autumn of the century and recognizing that agricultural output will be severely affected.

Suffering through Chilly U.S.-Cuban Relations

Five decades after the overthrow of Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista, U.S.-Cuban relations remain on ice. In El Diaro/La Prensa, AS/COA's Christopher Sabatini writes that political prisoners and divided families stand as victims in the two countries' ongoing standoff.

Cuba’s Newfound Popularity with LatAm Leaders

Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer chronicles recent trips to Cuba by Latin American heads of state, and wonders “whether we are witnessing a total surrender of the region’s commitment to democracy, or a worthy collective offensive to help bring about a political opening on the island.”

Read AS/COA coverage of Cuban President Raúl Castro’s first official travels since assuming office.

Honduras and Cuba to Sign FTA

Leaders from Honduras and Cuba announced the successful conclusion of free-trade negotiations, clearing the way for the pact’s enforcement next month, El Heraldo reports.

The Struggle for Influence in Latin America

The Financial Times explores the view that U.S. influence in Latin America is fading at a time when several countries in the region seek closer economic and military ties with China and Russia. Questions over how the Obama administration should react highlight fundamental differences between the ways each country seeks to make inroads in Latin America; while Moscow seeks “unsettle” to Washington, China’s focus remains economic.

Read more on Beijing’s closer ties to the region.

“Multilatinas” Weather Tough Times

Writing for Latin Business Chronicle, COA Board Member and White & Case Executive Partner Alexis E. Rovzar forecasts a promising outlook for “multilatinas”¢Å½¯multinational companies based in Latin America¢Å½¯in 2009. Rovzar, who highlights several success stories, explains that, while multilatinas face the same challenges as other corporations in the face of the global downturn, their executives command greater experience with crisis management than many competitors.

Internet Access Skyrockets in the Region

The Miami Herald reports on growing Internet access and use in Latin America, pointing to a projected user increase of 60 percent in the next five years, from 100 million to 160 million users. Web traffic increase offers a ripe field for advertising and social networking, with revenues expected to increase despite the economic slowdown.

Assessment of South America’s Rise

In a series of features titled “The Emerging Continent,” World Politics Review evaluates the momentum gained in South America after a decade of growth, integration, and political shifts. Topics include prospects offered by integration, the lack of coherence in the region’s Leftist movements, and Brazil’s emergence.

Latin America Democratic, but More Violent

The Freedom in the World 2009 report by Freedom House emphasizes that Latin America “managed to maintain its democratic character” but saw increasing violence. Countries that saw their ratings downgraded included Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Paraguay and Cuba made gains, although the report warns that Cuba “remains among the world’s most repressive regimes.”