Weekly Roundup: U.S. Elections, Mexican Energy Reform, and Haiti's Struggle

Eyes on the Hispanic Electorate

A Migration Information Source analysis by Pew Hispanic Center experts takes a look at the strategic importance of Hispanic voters in the November 4 presidential election. Although Latino voters make up just 9 percent of the electorate, their presence in swing states such as Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada make their votes a sought-after prize for candidates.

Hispanic Business features an interview with Southwest Voter Registration Education Project Director Antonio Gonzalez, who predicts that more than 11 million Hispanic voters will turn out to vote compared to 9.3 million in 2004.

While papers and pundits have taken a look how Senators Barack Obama and John McCain reach out to Hispanic voters, the Latin Americanist blog offers a blast from the past: A campaign commercial from nearly five decades ago in which Jackie Kennedy speaks in Spanish, urging Hispanic voters to vote for her husband.

Read previous Weekly Roundup coverage of the Hispanic vote's importance in the 2008 elections.

Americas Quarterly: Memos to the President-Elect

Just two days after the presidential election, the new Americas Quarterly in a special post-election issue will feature 31 memos to the President-elect. Presidents, policymakers, business leaders and entrepreneurs, academics, journalists, and activists from across the Americas discuss what the new president should focus on to create a new hemispheric agenda. Access a list of articles and contributors.

Cuban-American Voters Rethink Allegiance

As the presidential election approaches, Cuban-Americans debate their decades-old allegiance with the Republican Party and growing support for Democrat candidates at the state and presidential level. BBC chronicles how elected Republican Cuban-Americans face stiff competition and now, for the first time, have to actually fight to retain their posts.

Revelations about McCain-Pinochet Meeting

Documents secured by the Huffington Post show that Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain visited Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet in 1985. This conflicts with McCain’s hard stance against talking with authoritarian leaders and other rulers with poor human rights records, writes John Dinges, co-director of Chile's Center for Investigative Reporting and Information.

Writing in OpenDemocracy, David Sugarman, an expert on the Pinochet regime, reflects on the “landmark” arrest and trial of the dictator a decade after Pinochet was taken into custody.

Trade and Immigration Linked in LatAm

In a Houston Chronicle op-ed, Mexico’s former Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda writes that trade agreements and immigration between the United States and Latin America are linked. He presses for immigration reform, argues for approval of pending trade pacts, and warns that the next presidential administration should not tinker with existing trade deals such as NAFTA and DR-CAFTA. “If immigration is to become a less heated issue, the U.S. must address the needs of Latin America's economies,” writes Castañeda.

Mexico Passes Energy Reform

After months of debate and street protests, Mexico’s lower house of Congress approved an energy reform that will give Pemex greater freedom to seek private investment. The reform’s passage marks a victory for the administration of President Felipe Calderón in terms of getting controversial legislation approved.

Drug Cartels Infiltrate Mexican Crime Unit

The Sinaloa drug cartels infiltrated Mexican attorney general’s elite organized crime unit, paying up to $450,000 a month to several officials in exchange for confidential intelligence. The New York Times reports that drug cartel’s tentacles reached even into the American embassy in Mexico City, claim that has not been confirmed by the government. In an editorial article, El Universal points out that recent infiltration scandals reflect how deep drug cartels are intertwined in Mexican society, permeating its politics, security, and even sports.

Cabinet Changes Expected in Chile

After a less-than-stellar showing in municipal elections for President Michelle Bachelet’s coalition, the leader will likely replace some of her ministers in November. While Bachelet’s camp won a majority of city council seats up for grabs across the country, the opposition alliance won a larger portion of mayoral votes, including in Santiago, Concepcion, and Valparaiso.

An In-Depth Look at Venezuela under Chávez

The latest issue of ReVista, published by Harvard University’s David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies focuses on the effects of President Hugo Chávez’ government in Venezuela and emphasizes that the country is much more than its leader. “The language of hope, the language of despair, shortages and conspicuous consumption, empowerment and inequality, democracy and disenfranchisement, all mix together in a heady and dangerous brew of polarization,” writes ReVista Editor-in-Chief June Carolyn Erlick about present-day Venezuela.

Read an AS/COA analysis on how dropping oil prices could affect Venezuela. Also, read an exclusive interview with Leopoldo López Mendoza, mayor of the Chacao municipality in Caracas, on Venezuela’s political alternatives.

Protecting Emerging Markets

In a new Financial Times op-ed, Citigroup’s Senior Vice-Chairman and AS/COA’s Chairman William Rhodes argues that U.S. troubled asset relief and funds to recapitalize the banking system must be used to protect further deterioration of emerging markets. He urges the International Monetary Fund to play a lead role and says lessons from previous Latin American and Asian crisis should be applied promptly to strengthen developing economies.

Latin American Boost for Europe

European multinationals find relief in Latin American sales domestic consumption at home. French retailer Carrefour, Sweden’s Ericsson, and Swiss giant Nestle, among others, saw third quarter sales rise as a result of purchases in Latin America, “where a prosperous middle class and foreign investment has buoyed economic growth and spending power,” reports Forbes.com.

Market Reacts Negatively on Pension Fund Nationalization

The Wall Street Journal reports that Argentina’s takeover of private pension funds eroded investor confidence, pushing down stock markets and the peso, which reached its lowest price in more than five years. While President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner justifies her move to secure taxpayers money in turbulent financial as necessary, her detractors see the take over as a move to fill the government coffers.

Another Consequence of Financial Slowdown: Protectionism

In a recent report, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean warns that the deceleration of the global economy and roadblocks to traded negotiations such as the Doha Round might foster a new wave of protectionism in the hemisphere. Advances in technology, environmental concerns, and labor laws are new requirements for multilateral trade and should be addressed promptly to avoid unnecessary obstacles to integration.

OECD: Fair Taxation and Wise Spending Key for LatAm Future

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) unveiled its latest Latin American Outlook report and emphasized that measured spending and fair taxation can serve as powerful tools for economic, social, and political advancement in the region.In the preface, OECD Chief Economist and Director Javier Santiso weighs in on Latin America’s resilience amid troubled markets and how the region has diversified its business portfolio.

Read an AS/COA interview with the Global Head of Emerging Markets and Credit Research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Joyce Chang on Latin America’s economic growth prospects.

Latin America’s Demographic Challenge

In the Fall 2008 issue of World Policy Journal, Political Economy Fellow at the Brookings Institution Leonardo Martinez-Diaz forecasts the challenges that Latin America faces in the next quarter century as a result of demographic shifts. An aging population, increased interdependence, and more mature democracies will change the lives of millions, he notes.

On October 30, AS/COA hosts a panel discussion on changing demographics in North America and its implications for public policy.

Brazil’s Role as a Global Player

In the new issue of Foreign Affairs, journalist Juan de Onis writes about Brazil’s present opportunity to establish itself as the dominant regional power, fulfilling its long-awaited goals. But Onis underlines that the process remains “a work in progress” and Brazil must deal with corruption, outdated tax and labor codes, and inequality. Los Angeles Times warns that the present credit crunch affects Brazil’s efforts to modernize and expand its infrastructure, especially Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva’s flagship Growth Acceleration Program, in partnership with the private sector.

In an article published earlier this month in Poder magazine, COA’s Eric Farnsworth says Brazil “can no longer be taken for granted,” and urges the next U.S. administration to work closely with this new global player.

U.S. Suspends Trade Benefits for Bolivia

As relations sour between, Washington and La Paz, the Bush administration suspended on October 23 trade benefits extended to Bolivia as part of the Andean Pact Trade and Drug Enforcement Agreement (APTDEA), citing the Andean country’s failure to meet drug eradication goals. Thousands of Bolivians could lose their jobs that depend directly on the trade benefits guaranteed by ATPDEA, reports the Christian Science Monitor.

The Washington Post offers an interactive with images of Peace Corps volunteers who chose to stay behind when the agency evacuated workers last month as a result of civil unrest.

Read AS/COA coverage of recent breakthroughs in Bolivia’s political divide.

FARC in a Downward Spiral

After eight years held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), former Congressman Oscar Tulio Lizcano escaped with his jailer and was found by the army on October 26. Added to recent defections by the thousands—including some high ranked commanders, the FARC continues to weaken and displays low morale among all ranks. In an interview, Lizcano’s jailer predicted the FARC will become extinct and called his former brothers-in-arms to demobilize.

Haiti Struggles after Deadly Hurricane Season

PBS presents a multimedia look at how a series of tropical storms ravaged Haiti, killing more than 800 people and leaving more than and one million people homeless. The destruction caused more than $1 billion in damages.