Weekly Roundup: Venezuela Freezes Colombia Ties, Zelaya Camps Out, and Russia Comes Calling

Venezuela Freezes Colombia Ties, Threatens Economic Repercussions

On July 28, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced the freezing of relations with Colombia, the withdrawal of his country’s ambassador from Bogota, and repercussions in bilateral trade ties. He said Venezuela will seek imports from other countries such as Brazil. The move came in response to Colombia’s assertion that arms owned by the Venezuelan military had fallen into the hands of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Jane’s Intelligence Weekly reported last week that Colombia seized Swedish rocket launchers found in FARC camps that were likely originally sold to Venezuela. Semana traces events involving the discovery of the weapons and interactions between Bogotá and Colombia on the matter over a period that saw bilateral relations weaken. On Tuesday, the Swedish government asked for an explanation from the Chávez governemt about how the weapons, sold to the Andean country in the 1980s, ended up in rebel hands. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro called Colombia’s claims about the weapons a “lie.” Responding to the possible illegal sale of the weapons, a representative of manufacturer Saab Bofors Dynamics said, “It is always annoying when this happens.”

While some Colombian business leaders expressed concern over Venezuela’s economic freeze, the government of President Álvaro Uribe said Colombia said it will look to replace the Venezuelan market with Central America, Canada, the European Union, and the United States.

AS/COA hosts three Venezuelan congressman for a conversation on July 30. The event takes place in Washington, but a live webcast is also available.

Manuel Zelaya Camps on Border as Honduran Crisis Simmers

A decision by deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya to step just across the border from Nicaragua sparked media frenzy Friday. Supporters and cameramen surrounded him as he spoke on a cell phone and then returned to the Nicaraguan side after less than half an hour. The military did not arrest Zelaya, despite a brief conversation between the ousted leader and a military officer. The next day, Zelaya set up camp in Nicaragua near the border.

Also, the Honduran forces published a July 24 communiqué voicing support for a peaceful solution under the umbrella of the San José Accord negotiations mediated by Costa Rican President Oscar Árias. The 12-point accord would allow Zelaya to return to office with limited powers and as part of a coalition government. The interim government headed by Roberto Micheletti has thus far resisted the notion of Zelaya’s reinstatement. The military arrested and forced Zelaya to leave Honduras June 28 after he attempted to hold a referendum opposed by the country’s main institutions.

Leaders from Mexico, Colombia, and several Central American countries will attend the July 29 XI Summit of the Tuxtla Mechanism for political dialogue in Costa Rica. The Honduran crisis is expected to be the focus of this year’s summit.

With the crisis now a month old, Bloggings by boz lays out six lessons learned from the coup, ranging from “The Micheletti government is dumb” to “Hugo Chávez speaks loudly and carries a small stick.”

Access AS/COA’s Resource Guide to the Crisis in Honduras.

U.S. Revokes Visas for Honduran Interim Government

On July 28, the U.S. State Department informed of its decision to revoke visas for four members of the de facto government in Honduras and suggested that additional visas would be reviewed and possibly revoked. Washington took the step to apply pressure on the interim government to accept a peace deal, reports The Washington Post.

How to Boost Latin American Democracy

In an editorial for The Miami Herald, former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo describes his experience with trying to restore Peruvians’ trust in democratic institutions and explains what democracy in Latin America entails. “Democracy and freedom cannot be defined by the single day of an election; we must demand of our leaders that, once elected, they also govern democratically,” writes Toledo. He concludes that the actions taken in Honduras were “qualitatively different than a military coup.”

This article is adapted from a longer piece published in the Summer 2009 issue of Americas Quarterly.

Latin America’s Re-eleccionistas

With an eye to the month-old Honduran crisis, Dartmouth College’s John M. Carey writes in openDemocracy.net about the Latin American trend for presidents to reform constitutions to do away with term limits. “The overall record indicates that presidential re-election can work to the benefit of a polity and country, but also that less can be more and that, George Washington excepted, presidents themselves tend to lack judgment as to when enough is enough,” writes Carey.

The article is based on a longer essay that appears in the new issue of Americas Quarterly.

Russia and Venezuela Sign Trade, Energy Agreements

Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin met Monday in Caracas to sign multiple accords focusing on energy and trade as well as in the fields of finance, the economy, atomic energy, agriculture, foreign policy, and military-technical cooperation, says a Latin American Herald Tribune article. President Hugo Chávez told the delegation: “Thank you for believing in us, in Venezuela.”

Writing for Huffinton Post, Robert Amsterdam questions whether Russo-Venezuelan arms deals may undermine Central American democracies.

Morales Sends Settlers to Amazon

An InfoLatam article looks at Bolivian President Evo Morales’ plan to resettle 2,000 families to the Pando region of the Amazon. While Morales’ government claims the move provides necessary land access to peasants, opponents argue that Morales wants to “remedy an electoral deficit in the region.”
http://www.infolatam.com/entrada/bolivia_plan_de_morales_para_colonizar…

A Forecast for Bolivia’s Presidential Elections

In his blog Pronto, Miguel Centellas analyzes the latest poll figures for Bolivia’s December election, which show current President Evo Morales leading with 44 percent. But, writes Centellas, poll analysis is far more complicated given that the poll may be skewed lower in terms of Morales support, as well as because it remains unclear how many viable candidates will run and whether the opposition can create any kind of formidable alliance.

Iranian Cash for Bolivia

Tehran announced Wednesday that it plans to give La Paz a $280 million low-interest loan. Iran’s representative in Bolivia Masoud Edrisi told the Associated Press that the loan terms had not yet been defined.

Brazil’s HIV/AIDS Assistance as a Diplomatic Tool

Rutgers University’s Eduardo J. Gómez writes about how Brazilian intervention against HIV/AIDS stemmed a health crisis predicted 20 years ago. Since then, Brazil has served as a model for AIDS response and, since taking the helm in 2003, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva partnered with Portuguese-speaking countries in Africa to help combat the disease with technical and financial assistance. “HIV/AIDS assistance is becoming a powerful tool in the president's growing diplomatic chest,” writes Gómez.

Paraguay, Brazil Sign Landmark Agreement

Writing from São Paulo, Financial Times reporter Jonathan Wheatley discusses the “historic” agreement that Brazil and Paraguay signed on July 25 regarding the jointly-owned Itaipu hydroelectric dam. In the accord, Brazil agreed to triple to $360 million its payments to Paraguay for use of the smaller country’s excess electricity.

Read AS/COA coverage of the agreement.
 
Concerns about Argentine Capital Flight

Argentine economic consulting firm EcoLatina released a report stating that capital flight from Argentina averaged $2 billion per month over the past two years, according to a MercoPress article. EcoLatina economist Rodrigo Alvarez said, “[t]he great challenge for the Executive is to rebuild confidence because we are facing a serious political crisis which has an impact on the economic fundamentals and decision makers” quotes the article.

Mexican Poverty Analysis

A report by CONEVAL, Mexico’s social development council, finds that although poverty in Mexico has diminished significantly since 1992, the number of people living in poverty increased between 2006 and 2008. Still, the number of people living in homes with dirt floors—a determinant of extreme poverty—decreased during the same period. In an analysis of the data, pollsters Consulta Mitofsky say that the inability to secure sustainable growth for Mexicans, as demonstrated in poverty figures, stands as a primary medium and long-term challenge.

PRI’s Image Improves After Election

The Under the Volcano blog reports on a recent poll showing that the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) image improved following the July 5 elections, when the party regained a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The PRI, long associated with corruption, is also seen as the most united of the three main political parties.

Listen to an AS/COA teleconference on the PRI’s victory by Mexican political analyst Denise Dresser’s.

Cuba’s Craigslist

On NPR’s All Things Considered, Guy Raz spoke with GlobalPost reporter Nick Miroff about the website revolico.com, Cuba’s equivalent of craigslist.org. Describing the digitization of Cuba’s black market, Miroff said “in Havana it is becoming something of a commercial and cultural phenomenon.”

El Salvador Closes Schools over A/H1N1 Fears

The Ministry of Public Health in El Salvador announced the two-week closure of schools nationwide after confirming 469 cases of A/H1N1virus through July 21. Roughly 63 percent of the cases were detected in patients between the ages of five and 19. Agence France Presse reports that, thus far, two out of every three fatal cases of the virus occurred in the Americas.

Visualizing Latin America’s African Roots

In a GlobalPost Full Frame photo essay, photographer Sebastian Belaustegui documents several Latin American cultures and traditions continued by descendents of African slaves. “[T]he Afro-American cultures and traditions are poorly documented and underappreciated,” Belaustegui, who has spent a decade documenting indigenous cultures in Latin America.