Weighing Cuba's Prisoner Release

Havana attracted attention over the past week when it unveiled plans for the biggest release of political prisoners in more than a decade. Then, on the heels of Cuba’s announced intentions to release 52 prisoners, Fidel Castro made a media splash with a rare televised appearance, railing against a familiar target—Washington—and warning against attacks on Iran and North Korea. Buzz about the live interview with the octogenarian former president, who handed power over to his brother Raúl in 2006, coincided with news from the Spanish Foreign Ministry that it expected to welcome the first group of freed exiles along with their families in Madrid on Tuesday. Observers wonder whether the latest developments signify a new stage for Cuba and how the United States will respond.

The prisoner releases could be a face-saving measure for Havana, which drew sharp criticism after hunger striker and dissident Orlando Zapata Tamayo died in February. Guillermo Fariñas, who ate no solid food for 134 days after Zapata Tamayo’s death, ended his own hunger strike after Havana made its July 8 announcement of the release. The 52 prisoners are among 75 dissidents, many of whom were journalists, arrested in March 2003 during what became known as Cuba’s “Black Spring.”

But Havana will likely see more protests. Despite the success of prisoner-release negotiations carried out by the Catholic Church and Spain’s Foreign Affairs Minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos. Ladies in White leader Laura Pollan told the BBC over the weekend that her group’s regular marches would continue in Havana until all political prisoners gain release. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch’s Daniel Wilkinson warns that the prisoner releases represent a “deceptive amnesty.” In a blog for The New York Review of Books, he covers past prisoner releases and warns, “Nothing will prevent the Castro government from restocking the newly emptied prison cells with other Cubans who dare to question its hold on power.”

The releases should also be viewed “against Cuba’s truly grim economic backdrop,” writes John Paul Rathbone in the Financial Times. This year’s sugar harvest ranks as the island’s worst since 1905 and Raúl Castro described mending Cuba’s “complex economic problems” as an urgent priority during a speech at the end of May. By boosting its image through a prisoner release, Havana could make economic gains by winning support to weaken sanctions. Cuba seeks a softening of the European Union’s “common position,” a series of sanctions adopted in 1996 that requires the release of political prisoners and evidence of democratic reform for increased economic cooperation to take place.

How will Washington react? In the first months of his presidency, U.S. President Barack Obama rolled back restrictions on travel and remittances sent by Cuban Americans as well as on U.S.-Cuba telecommunications links. But in March he condemned Havana’s “clenched fist.” The White House previously demanded prisoner releases as a condition for moving U.S.-Cuban relations forward. “We think that’s a positive sign,” said U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton, commenting last week on news of the planned prisoner release. “It’s something that is overdue, but nevertheless, very welcome.” But no concrete decisions have emerged since Havana’s made its announcement last week.

Still, changes could be underfoot. At the end of June, the House Agriculture Committee of U.S. Congress passed a bill that would not only allow all Americans to travel to Cuba, but also for expanded U.S. exports of agricultural and medical products to the island. The legislation will likely face heated debate on the House floor. Advocates say easing export limits would help U.S. commerce and job creation, but opponents argue the bill’s passage would reward the Cuban regime. How the release and likely exile of 52 Cuban dissidents will play into the debate remains to be seen.

Learn more:

• AS/COA hosts a July 16 program: “Social Media and Information Technology in Cuba: Recommendations for the Public and Private Sectors.” Register by July 15 to attend the event in New York or view the live webcast.
• Read an AS/COA analysis on the Catholic Church’s role in prisoner-release negotiations with the Castro government.
• Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez reports on the conclusion of Guillermo Farinas’ hunger strike.
• Text of the EU’s 1996 “common position”.
• Travel Restriction Reform and Export Enhancement Act, which seeks to ease travel and agricultural export restrictions in the case of Cuba.