2014 Election Blog: Colombia's Congressional Election

On March 9, Colombia holds legislative elections. Voters will choose the full Congress: 102 senators and 166 representatives for four-year terms. Nearly 33 million Colombians are eligible to vote, both at home and abroad. The election takes place ahead of the May 25 presidential election and amid ongoing peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The Candidates

Former President Álvaro Uribe—an outspoken critic of President Juan Manuel Santos and his administration—is running for the Senate under the Democratic Center banner, a party he created in 2012. It's the first time a former Colombian head of state is seeking a senatorial seat. Two former presidents of the country’s constituent assembly that drew up the 1991 constitution are also running for the upper house: the Liberal Party's Horacio Serpa and the Green Alliance's Antonio Navarro. Other candidates of note include senatorial hopeful Carlos Fernando Galán—son of Luis Carlos Galán, a presidential candidate assassinated in 1989—and congressional candidate Rodrigo Lara Restrepo, the son of Justice Minister Rodrigo Lara Bonilla, assassinated in 1984.

The Polls

Released March 2, an El Tiempo/W Radio Senate race poll found that Uribe's Democratic Center party is in the lead with 23.4 percent. However, in second place with 19.4 percent is no party—that is, those who plan to submit a blank vote. In third place is the Liberal party, followed closely by the governing Social Party of National Unity, or Party of the U. The same survey found that the blank vote accounts for the least in the presidential race with 41.5 percent, while Santos is in second place with 24.2 percent.

A Cifras y Conceptos poll released late last month found similar results on the Senate race, with the Democratic Center in first place with 20 percent, followed by the Liberal Party with 17 percent and the Party of the U at 11 percent. It showed that the senatorial candidate with the highest approval rating is Uribe, with 54 percent. The survey also determined 57 percent of voters say they have no party affiliation.

Key Issues

The legislative election could be a litmus test for Santos and his party ahead of the May 25 presidential election. The Party of the U, the Liberal Party, and other governing party allies stand poised to maintain a majority coalition in the Senate, the Cifras y Conceptos survey indicates. And while the polls favor Uribe, an op-ed in La Silla Vacía notes that the former president's success on March 9 won't necessarily translate into more support for the Democratic Center presidential hopeful, Óscar Iván Zuluaga. The candidate has been sliding in the polls each month; he's currently polling at around 6 percent, according to the El Tiempo survey.

The election may also prove important for the country's ongoing peace process. Dinero writes that this legislature "could possibly begin the post-conflict era," and Semana adds that the new Congress will be "decisive" in the peace negotiations. However, only around a third of Colombians believe the peace process with the FARC will lead to a successful conclusion, according to the Cifras y Conceptos poll. To boot, the FARC refused to declare a ceasefire during the election.

The election will have ramifications in other areas. New rules to improve transparency will be put into place, including biometric identification to fight voter fraud and immediate vote counting on election day. Along with the legislative vote, the Green Alliance will hold a primary vote to choose its presidential candidate. In addition, those living overseas will choose a congressperson to represent expats in Congress.