Lima 2014 Blog: Report Calls for Reducing Emissions, Increasing Renewables

Weeks before a UN climate change conference in Lima will focus on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, a new report puts the challenge in blunt terms, pressuring countries to transition quickly to cleaner energy. This month, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fifth assessment report on climate change and its impacts, integrating findings produced by over 800 scientists.

For the IPCC, there is no doubt temperatures are rising due to human action. In fact, emissions from carbon-based fuels and greenhouse gases have never been higher. The report points out that, since the 1950s, the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased to higher levels than in the prior 800,000 years.

As a result of emissions, temperatures will continue rising over the twenty-first century and heat waves could become more intense and frequent. Between 1901 and 2010, the global mean sea level rose by 0.19 meters. The rate of sea-level rise since 1850 is greater than the mean rate from the previous two millennia, says the report.

Less-developed countries will face the biggest challenges. The UN alerts that “people who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalized are especially vulnerable to climate change.”

Cutting Emissions, Fossil Fuels

According to the report, emissions must drop by 40 to 70 percent between 2010 and 2050 in hopes of staying below a 2-degree increase in temperature—the level countries agreed to in 2009—at a manageable cost. The report stresses the importance of switching to renewable sources, especially electricity. To maintain temperature levels, renewables will need to grow from representing 30 percent to 80 percent of the power sector by 2050. Fossil-based resources should be phased out, with “emissions levels near zero or below in 2100,” says the IPCC.

An Opportunity for Latin America

However, the report also presented some good news: adapting and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions should not drag down economic growth. The IPCC says that if emissions and climate change continue at “business-as-usual scenarios,” the world would face more risks to economic growth. On the other hand, scientists producing the report said that “ambitious mitigation” should have a minimal impact on the global economy.

In the case of Latin America, the shift toward renewable energy is an opportunity for economic growth. The region is already investing in non-traditional renewable sources. According to a report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) for the Guardian, Latin American countries are encouraging the sector because of low-production costs that emerged during the last decade. According to the WWF, the region saw $16 billion invested in renewables, accounting for 7 percent of global clean energy investments.

The region’s diverse pool of natural resources and policy incentives has made Latin America and the Caribbean attractive for renewable energy investors. Climatescope, a study that maps the market conditions for clean energy development, shows that, in developing countries, renewable energy capacity growth could be as much as 143 percent between 2008 and 2013. The survey puts four Latin America countries—Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay—in the top-ten investment climates out of 55 countries.

Brazil ranks as the second-most attractive country for clean energy investors, after China. Renewables represent 15 percent of the Brazilian national power matrix. Expanding wind power in its northeast, Brazil could be the major regional assembler of turbines in 2016. Electricity generation by wind power grew 154 percent from 2013 to 2014 in the country, and capacity rose 72 percent.

Chile is attracting investments in the renewable sector, aiming for non-conventional renewables to account for 20 percent of the country’s energy sources by 2025. For example, Luz del Norte, a project in the Atacama region, is the largest solar plant in Latin America. The country is the first to put wind and solar projects directly on the market, totaling $1.6 billion invested in 2013, with $958 million going to solar projects and $583 million to wind farms.

While undergoing an energy reform, Mexico is also focusing on green initiatives. The country plans to expand its natural gas capacity, but introduced a carbon tax in January 2014, aiming to reduce emissions by 30 percent by 2020. Mexico offers the second largest clean-energy market in the region, with the sector representing 5 percent of the country’s power capacity. In addition, the country’s greenhouse gas program encourages companies in major sectors such as cement, steel, petroleum, and beer brewing to publicly report their greenhouse gas inventory and plan on reductions.

Uruguay is reaping the benefits of starting reverse auctions for clean power projects over the last decade. The country is decreasing dependence on hydro plants and invested in expanding wind and solar projects. In 2013, the country attracted $1.3 billion for clean energy projects.