Poll Update: Brazil's Rousseff Maintains Lead, Though Neves Gains Ground
Ahead of the October 5 vote, the president remains at the top of the polls but she may face a runoff.
June marked a decisive month ahead of Brazil’s October 5 presidential vote. Polls showed that President Dilma Rousseff has lost some ground among prospective voters while her main opponent gained ground and the number of undecided voters rose. And while the president leads voter intention, surveys show she may be unable to avoid a second round. Plus, June 30 marked the deadline for Brazilian political parties to officially select candidates to support and to form coalitions with other parties. Rousseff has the support of eight parties including her own as the Worker’s Party (PT) candidate, while Aécio Neves represents the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSBD) with the support of eight total parties, including his own. Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) candidate Eduardo Campos is backed by five parties.
A CNI-Ibope poll published June 19 places Rousseff with 39 percent, down one point since last month. Neves came in second with 21 percent of the vote, up one point from the previous month, and Campos was third at 10 percent. A survey conducted by Instituto Sensus also shows a drop in votes for the president from 34 percent in April to 32.2 percent in June. Neves scored 21.4 percent, up 1.5 points since April, while Campos dropped to 7.5 percent from 8.3 percent.
On the other hand, a June 6 Datafolha poll showed all three candidates lose vote shares since May. The survey indicates the president leads with 34 percent of the vote, going down three points since May. Runner-up Neves had 19 percent, a point less than in May, and Campos had 7 percent—losing 4 points. At the same time, the number of undecided voters rose from 8 percent to 13 percent, while null and blank votes rose from 16 percent to 17 percent.
Polls show Rousseff would win a second-round vote against all other contenders, though with a smaller margin than in previous surveys. Ibope shows Rousseff winning against Neves with a 13-point difference, down from 20 points in May. Instituto Census puts the two only 5.1 points apart, down from 6.1 points from April.