Poll Update: Colombian Polls Show No Clear Election Winner

In Colombia, a set of polls released before the June 15 runoff election show conflicting numbers, indicating the outcome remains unpredictable. The latest polls from Cifras y Conceptos, Gallup, and Ipsos Napoleon Franco published June 5 and 6 contradict each other when it comes to picking a victor between President Juan Manuel Santos and opposition candidate Oscar Iván Zuluaga. 

The Ipsos Napoleon Franco poll shows Zuluaga with an eight-point lead over president Santos of the Social Party of National Unity. The survey gives Zuluaga 49 percent of the intended vote against 41 percent for Santos. Meanwhile, Cifras y Conceptos puts Santos ahead with 43.4 percent of the votes in comparison with Zuluaga’s 38.5 percent. The Gallup poll suggests yet another reality: a statistical tie between the two candidates, with Zuluaga earning 48.5 percent and Santos with 47.7 percent. Taken together, the polls have an average margin of error of 2.7 percent.

Gallup’s survey included a series of questions that revealed the top issues for voters, as well as the candidate they thought best equipped to deal with them. Although the Santos’ administration’s peace talks with rebel groups have been a point of campaign contention, unemployment emerged as voters’ top concern. Instead, coming to an agreement with guerillas took the fourth spot, with Santos considered by respondents to be the more capable candidate for achieving that goal by nearly a two-to-one margin over Zuluaga. 

Differing approaches toward the talks has shaped each candidate’s campaign. Santos, whose government initiated peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (better known as the FARC), contrasts with Zuluaga, who demands a ceasefire before further advancing the process. The subject came up repeatedly in the second presidential debate, televised on Monday and organized by El Tiempo Casa Editorial and La W Radio. While Monday night’s debate topics covered the economy as well as the peace talks, the latter topic resulted in heated moments between Santos and Zuluaga. 

In particular, the candidates sparred over the Justice and Peace Law signed in 2005 by then-President Álvaro Uribe Vélez. The initiative sought to demobilize rebel armed forces. But it has been criticized for shielding leading paramilitaries by assigning an alternative penal code—such as eight-year maximum jail sentences—for informants.

“The peace that [Zuluaga] wants is the peace that was negotiated with the paramilitaries, which was a peace to pardon the murderers,” claimed Santos. “But when they began to speak the truth they were extradited.” Zuluaga countered by pointing out Santos was defense minister during Uribe’s Democratic Security Policy, and lead the effort. “You defended the Justice and Peace Law and defended what the demobilization and reinsertion of paramilitaries and guerilla signified,” retorted Zuluaga. “Now you can’t tell the country anything to the contrary.”