Poll Update: Colombia's Presidential Race Heats up

Ahead of Colombia’s presidential election on May 25, a new poll shows that while President Juan Manuel Santos is in the lead, he could face a close runoff.

Released March 16, the Datexco survey for El Tiempo and W Radio indicates that Santos is in first place with 25.5 percent of the vote, followed by the Green Alliance’s Enrique Peñalosa with 17.1 percent. Peñalosa, a former Bogota mayor, was chosen in a party primary on March 9 to run for president. The Democratic Center’s Oscar Iván Zuluaga—running on a ticket created by former President Álvaro Uribe— came in third with 14.6 percent. Clara López of the Democratic Pole/Patriotic Union alliance was in fourth place at 10.7 percent. Finally, the Conservative Party’s Marta Lucía Ramírez had 7.7 percent.

Because a candidate needs at least 50 percent of the votes to avoid a runoff, Datexco asked who voters would choose in the event of a second round. Santos would have an ample lead of at least 10 points over all of the candidates except for Peñalosa. In the case of a runoff between the president and the Green Alliance candidate, the survey shows that about 40 percent of voters would pick Peñalosa and 37 percent would choose Santos.

The poll showed a notable change from a previous survey in February: fewer voters said they planned to cast a blank vote. In February, nearly 42 percent said they would submit a blank vote, while in March, that number dropped to less than 17 percent.