Poll Update: Colombia's Santos Leads, but Runoff Looks Likely

With less than a month remaining until the May 25 presidential election, two polls give President Juan Manuel Santos the lead, although both surveys show the “blank vote” competing with top candidates. Plus, the polls indicate a likelihood of a second-round vote, since a candidate must garner at least 50 percent to avoid a runoff.

An April 26 Ipsos Napoleon Franco poll published in Semana shows that Santos remains in first place with 23 percent, followed by the Democratic Center’s Oscar Iván Zuluaga with 15 percent and the Green Alliance’s Enrique Peñalosa with 11 percent. Zuluaga saw the biggest gains, rising 6 points since March, while Santos fell by one point. Meanwhile, 14 percent of voters said they plan to cast a blank ballot and 22 are undecided. The survey also found that Santos would win against all challengers in a second round.

But the survey found, for the first time, that Santos would lose to Peñalosa in the country’s capital. The president—who faced criticism after agreeing to remove Bogota Mayor Gustavo Petro from his post in March—reinstated the local leader on April 23 after a court ruled in his favor. The poll found Santos’ approval rating fell from 52 percent in February to 43 percent in April.

Released April 27, a new Datexco poll for El Tiempo indicates Santos in the lead with 28 percent, followed by the “blank vote” with 17 percent. Zuluaga is in third with 16 percent, and Peñalosa in fourth with 15 percent. Around 5 percent remain undecided. In this survey, Santos would also defeat all other candidates in the case of a second round.