Poll Update: Surveying Brazil’s Presidential "Pre-Candidates"

On March 20, Ibope released a new poll ahead of Brazil’s October 5 presidential election. Though presidential candidacies will be officially announced in June, those named in the polls are referred to as “pre-candidates.” The survey found that President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party has 43 percent of the vote, with the Brazilian Social Democratic Party Senator Aécio Neves in second place with 15 percent. The Brazilian Socialist Party’s Eduardo Campos, governor of Pernambuco state, took the third spot with 7 percent.

Ibope also looked at a scenario that involved minority candidates, in which Rousseff would receive 40 percent, and other candidates would receive a combined total of 23 percent of the vote. In this case, Rousseff would be able to win in the first round with an absolute majority, because the percentage of votes for her would outnumber the combined percentage of votes for other candidates. If the vote went to a second round, Rousseff would win with a wide margin against Neves, Campos, or Marina Silva—Campos’ vice presidential pick. According to Ibope’s past polls, Rousseff has maintained a lead of between 8 and 46 points over the second-place candidate since March 2013.

In spite of the wide support for the president, the poll found that 64 percent of voters hope the next president “totally changes things” or “changes things a lot” during the next administration. Meanwhile 32 percent want to see things stay the same.